David R. Salmon |International election trends and lessons for Jamaica

Globally, 2025 is shaping up to be a year of elections. Germany went to the polls in February; Belize in March. In April, Trinidad and Tobago as well as Canada had their elections.

This month, it was Australia and Singapore’s turn. Even the Vatican City had its conclave to elect a new pope, while later in the year, South Korea, Guyana, St Vincent and the Grenadines will head to the polls. Despite their differences, these elections offer valuable lessons for Jamaica, which is slated to head to the polls sometime this year.

Last year was a bad season for incumbent governments. Multiple political parties lost office, from Britain’s Conservative Party to the Democrats in the United States, to even the Botswana Democratic Party, which has never lost an election since independence.

Other parties like India’s Bharatiya Janata Party, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party and South Africa’s African National Congress lost their parliamentary majorities. In these examples, the rising cost of living and the perceived inability of the ruling parties to respond to domestic concerns were widely seen as the reason for these losses.

On the other hand, this year has been a good season for political parties that have demonstrated competence in handling the affairs of state. For example, Singapore’s ruling People’s Action Party has been rewarded with an increased majority after its election earlier this month.

Voters have also turned to parties that demonstrate a capacity to handle crises. For example, Germany’s Christian Democratic Union won its election with its technocratic leader Friedrich Merz, becoming the country’s new chancellor. In Germany, voters elected a coalition that could respond to its mounting economic crises.

While for Trinidad and Tobago, voters defenestrated the longstanding People’s National Movement (PNM) to elect the United National Congress (UNC) and its leader former Prime Minister Kamla Persad-Bissessar. The UNC was elected owing to mounting frustration with the PNM and their inability to respond to increases in crime and economic malaise. These examples highlight how voters are keen to elect political leaders who can provide stability and sound leadership.

In Jamaica’s case, voters’ main issue is crime, which is declining. Consumer confidence is also at an all-time high which bodes well for the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). The JLP is likely to benefit from this as long as they can continue to demonstrate competent leadership amid the current uncertainty in the global economy. Ideally, the JLP should call the election before the hurricane season as natural disasters tend to precipitate a government’s loss of power.

For the People’s National Party (PNP), they will have an uphill battle ahead. This is not due to a deficiency with its leadership. On the contrary, it is more as a result of the PNP being an untested entity having not been in power for years. When in doubt, electorates tend to go for a safe pair of hands. Both parties have to demonstrate this to voters.

THE TRUMP EFFECT

This year’s elections have also seen voters rejecting parties that have courted close ties with the administration of US President Donald Trump. This happened in both Canada and Australia.

In Canada’s case, its Conservative Party lost the election with its leader, Pierre Poilievre, even losing his own seat. This was mainly due to the Canadian electorate rejecting his party’s association with Trump. Importantly, for this analysis, the Liberal’s achieved their historic fourth consecutive win after they replaced the widely unpopular Justin Trudeau with the more technocratic, Mark Carney.

In Australia, the outcome was even worse for the conservative Liberal-National coalition. The Labour Party and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese came from behind to demolish the party. Its leader, Peter Dutton, lost his seat after representing it for 24 years.

While it is tempting to see these examples, as a repudiation of conservatives, that would be an inaccurate representation of the situation. For example, the Canadian Conservatives won their highest vote share in over a decade. Instead, these trends reflect the fact that during these uncertain times, voters have rejected parties that have previously courted ties with the Trump administration.

This is unlikely to be the case for Jamaica as neither party has adopted this position. For the PNP, it has not outlined any notable international position recently. Nevertheless, given the party’s history, it is unlikely to be close to the administration.

For the JLP, it has cultivated a more ambivalent relationship with Washington. While political pundits and some members in the media would like to argue that the administration marches in lockstep with the US, there is little evidence of this.

Jamaica recently asserting its support for the Cuban medical mission programme illustrates that the country is willing to protect its interests when it conflicts with Washington’s priorities. As long as both parties can maintain decent working relations with the US, they are unlikely to be hurt by any close association with the Trump administration.

LOCAL SITUATION

Throughout Jamaica’s political history, only one government has served more than two consecutive terms in office. That was during the 1990s into the 2000s when the PNP capitalised on the JLP cannibalising itself with internal party frictions. Similarly, the JLP benefited from internal divisions in the PNP during the 2020 general election, as the PNP’s vote share collapsed in part due to intra-party conflict.

This year, both parties have seen tensions bubbling to the surface ahead of the upcoming election. A lightning rod for this dissatisfaction has been the process of candidate selection (and deselection). If these issues are not resolved, perceptions of disunity will become a deciding factor for voters this year.

Belize provides a valuable case study of what can happen when parties experience prolonged internal divisions. In that case, Opposition disunity led to incumbent Prime Minister Johnny Briceño comfortably winning a second term in office.

Thankfully, one variable that will not be a deciding factor for this year’s election is ideological posturing from the two parties as most voters are largely practical in their orientation.

Therefore, for Jamaica’s 2025 general election, the party that will likely win is one that can: demonstrate proven competence in managing the government, balance the priorities of voters and present a united front. Let’s see who will succeed in this act.

David R. Salmon is a public commentator, development specialist and a Rhodes Scholar. Send feedback to davidsalmon@live.com or on X @DavidSalmonJA.