Mark Wignall | PM, which is the right picture?

This is from Reuters, dated Tuesday, March 15: “… that is because Russia’s role as one of the world’s top commodity producers has sent prices and global inflation skywards.” The key words are “global inflation skywards”.

US President Joe Biden told Americans to prepare for higher gas prices at the pump.

Rohan Budhai is a Jamaica-born tax consultant and writer. He writes; “I hate to be the harbinger of bad news, but I am a realist. So am I the only one seeing the approaching economic maelstrom?” On his blog, The Howlers, he writes very cogently against the backdrop of the horrors taking place in Ukraine.

No, Mr Budhai. But what are we to make of Prime Minister Andrew Holness? It is Thursday at about midday and the PM is promoting his Budget presentation. The first thing that jumps out at you is the picture of the PM. He is captured with a flash of a broad smile and the subheading is Building our Jamaica. Sowing seeds for peace, opportunity and prosperity.

Budhai does not mince words.”The fallout of this war will put the entire global economy to the sword. This is especially so when considering that the COVID-19 pandemic has already ravaged Jamaica and the world’s economies. This new European war will negatively affect the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and eventually drill down to individual countries and persons. Prices of certain products will increase dramatically to match the ramped-up cost of factors of production.”

He then focuses on the local bauxite industry.

“‘The Russian company UC Rusal operates plants in Australia, Guinea, Ukraine, and Jamaica. The concern is that the never-before-seen sanctions of the West will cripple the operations of the Jamaican plant in Ewarton. This potential for a cessation of activities at US Rusal Windalco will undoubtedly affect the livelihood of a broad cross-section of the company’s workforce.

“The multiplier effect of income loss of the workers above will directly affect the local economies of Ewarton, Linstead, and Bog Walk, amongst others. The plant’s closure will hamper economic growth in these regional communities. The simultaneous expected rise in living costs will lead to further depressive conditions. Jamaica earns approximately US$1 billion from bauxite, and a global slowing down of that industry would be catastrophic and may impact operations throughout the island.”

He takes aim at Jamaica’s resilient tourism sector. “Tourism is one of Jamaica’s largest income-earning industries with revenues of approximately US$1.4 billion. Our most prominent market, North America, is assumed to be stumped by ridiculously rising oil prices. As a result, Americans will have less money to target vacation-related recreational activities. Consequently, the falloff in travelling and tourism expenditure will adversely affect Jamaica. And the news out of Europe is no better. Europeans will face rising fuel and other costs that will curtail foreign vacation travel. So Jamaica, with its impressive array of hotel solutions and majestic tourism products, will have decreased earnings from this otherwise buoyant industry sector.”

I would never expect our prime minister to lay out in a budget presentation a picture of doom and gloom. That is the antithesis of politics. And it is known as political suicide.

SEEING OBVIOUS SOLUTIONS

Quite apart from the obvious strengths we have in our cultural outreach across the globe,Budhai suggests that “… we have a marked advantage in a line of agricultural products that appeals to the global market. These products include coffee, cocoa, ginger, castor oil, pepper, coupled with the tremendous potential of Jamaican cannabis and cannabis-related products. Talk about cannabis and a country with a balanced balance-of-payments regime.’

Any serious attempt to reverse the economic storm clouds gathering on the horizon is dependent on Russia and Ukraine striking that most difficult agreement that will end the horrors of war.

IS COVID-19 OFFICIALLY CANCELLED?

Following what our people at street level had long decided, the Government has decided to bring COVID-19 into our mainstream while recognising that it still poses dangers. The entertainment sector will welcome its reopening although the strictures on finding excess funds will still apply to those in the US, Canada, and sections of Europe facing a war creeping up on them.

For months during the latter part of 2020 and all of 2021, Jamaicans in small-scale entertainment (bars, concealed dance promotions) defied the authorities and kept the cash register ringing at the level where children were still fed during those lean times. Many of us knew that the kids at home were there only for the meals as remote learning was all just a grand hoax.

Sadly, many parents did not assist their children in this. So now that they’ve fallen behind, our teachers have no other choice but to start the routine all over again. The consequences will be felt in a few years’ time.

I wish that I had the time to listen to PM Holness, especially as he bobs and weaves his way around skillfully laying out some of the pain that this country and its people are likely to feel in the coming months.

As I said before, politicians believe it is their duty to ‘enhance’ the truth or to sell hope in brightly coloured packets. They dare not repeat the lessons of 2011 and face the wrath of the electorate.

The opposition People’s National Party (PNP) tried to puncture holes in the Government’s position but alas, no traction was to be gained from that. Against the backdrop of war in Europe, the PNP’s search for something slimy to stick to the Holness administration has not worked out too well. In fact, it has simply not worked.

In the meantime, we can only hope that a cessation of hostilities is hammered out and a Marshall Plan-type rebuilding begins in Ukraine before its main cities are totally flattened.

Mark Wignall is a political and public affairs analyst. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and mawigsr@gmail.com.