PLUGGING HOLES IN THE BREACH

Prime Minister Dr Andrew Holness is in a difficult position. As leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), he has to balance the responsibilities of government while preventing his party’s ship from capsizing. He has been in office for nine years, so his administration is as incumbent as can be.

Barring one exception, no political party in Jamaica has pulled off securing a consecutive third term. Mind you, P. J. Patterson was the exception, and he was competing against a JLP that was eating itself alive. However, if there is one quality the prime minister possesses it is determination, and he has pulled off upsets in the past. In fact, he became prime minister after achieving a surprising political victory. Given that his party is currently in office, its strategy will primarily revolve around capitalising on its incumbency.

Landscape Going Into This Election

The JLP’s goal is to cauterise any haemorrhaging of support in the lead-up to the election. This is sensible given that the party is defending an extremely high seat count of 49. The historic nature of the 2020 General Election, being that it was the first time the JLP won a second term for a contested election since 1967, meant that it was in uncharted waters.

The PNP’s vote share had collapsed, and the JLP picked up seats it had not won in decades. The implication of this is that five years later, unless the party actively built up its campaign infrastructure in these constituencies, it would likely lose them in the next election.

Based on the party’s performance in the 2024 local government polls, only a few MPs were proactive in this regard. This election was useful in showing the party’s on-the-ground weaknesses and its deficiencies in organisational capacity. The election, broadly, was a test of the two parties’ bases given the low turnout. So both we the public and the parties themselves know where they stand.

The JLP’s Master Plan

The JLP’s long-standing electoral strategy has been to campaign on its record in office while also demonstrating its competence in handling the affairs of state. That was the approach adopted in the last general election, where the party’s strategy crystallised around highlighting the competence and popularity of its leader.

At the time, Holness’ favourability meant that many first-term MPs could ride on his coattails to victory. Since then, the landscape has changed fundamentally. The party has been in office for two terms, and it is no longer seen as “new” or “fresh”. That change in perception also applies to its leader.

Instead of merely focusing on its performance in office, the JLP’s secretariat has shifted to weeding out weak links, bad eggs, ageing representatives, and persons who will not be competitive in the coming elections. Its current “candidate review” process reflects this approach.

The party has also been strategic in using its by-election wins as a springboard to show its members that it is still electorally viable. Momentum is a party’s greatest ally, and using the by-elections to build up momentum is wise.

The PNP, shrewdly, has not contested the parliamentary by-elections especially since the seats in question were safe for the ruling JLP. Instead, it has concentrated its efforts and resources on councillor divisions,where it is more competitive. Hence, the party does not need to blunt its own win-streak with local government by-elections. While the PNP has attempted to carve out a “principled” position for not contesting the parliamentary elections, every political cynic knows that it aims not to expend resources it does not have. The JLP has made the most of this opportunity with the timing of the by-elections.

Annoying Distractions

The party, or more specifically its leader, has also been troubled by several distractions. The legal battle between Dr Holness and the Integrity Commission (IC) has been a major diversion. Instead of concentrating its efforts towards the Opposition, the JLP has devoted its energy to battling the IC.

The fallout from an adverse ruling is embarrassing, and it makes political sense to attack the body to deny the PNP a win. But beyond politics, this matter has absorbed precious time, energy, and effort that could otherwise be spent improving the party’s electoral machinery.

Another distraction has been the stand-off with the constitutional review process and the Portmore parish debate. Neither of these legislative changes will be enacted before the election. The constitutional matter is dead regardless of what Minister of Legal and Constitutional Affairs Marlene Malahoo-Forte says. The PNP has smelled blood, and its recent incalcitrant stance is not going to change.

Similarly, Portmore being made a parish is another reform that should have no bearing on the coming election. Former director of elections Orrette Fisher said in February that this decision will not change the voters’ list to be released in May by the Electoral Office of Jamaica. Additionally, establishing the boundaries of the parish is a more complex process that is also unlikely to be completed before the election. Therefore, these matters are merely political distractions. Going forward, the party will need to avoid any major scandals that will turn off undecided voters or suppress the excitement among its existing supporters.

Talent Pool Wide, Not Deep

Another weakness of the party has been its talent deficiencies. In the past, Holness’ Cabinet was a major strength, and the prime minister can be credited for largely professionalising his executive with qualified appointees. Now, after nine years, only a limited number of new faces and “new blood” have been added to the party’s top brass.

Many veteran ministers and MPs are still in place, with limited options for successors. This was most recently demonstrated with the retirement of Karl Samuda and then his “unretirement” a few weeks later. It can also be seen with the retirement announcement of Everald Warmington and then his “surprise” decision to run again. To the more astute observer, this is a sign of deficiencies with the available candidates. Appointing three new senators while leaving the Senate seat previously occupied by Don Wehby vacant also shows signs that its talent pool is not as deep.

It should be noted that it has not been a total loss. Marlon Morgan has been a welcome addition to the communications team of the ruling party. Clinical and calculating in his criticism, he is less abrasive than Abka Fitz-Henley and demonstrates far more impact. It is fair to credit him with effectively defanging the corruption allegations the PNP levied at the Government, with Senator Donna Scott-Mottley humbly acknowledging that “there is corruption on both sides”.

Moreover, Minister Dr Dana Morris Dixon is also a breath of fresh air in the cobweb-infested Ministry of Education. What is interesting to note is that with Morris Dixon, Fitz-Henley, and Marlon Morgan in the Senate, a large portion of the JLP’s communications team is in one place. I suppose that the opposition just needs to wait for Friday’s Senate session to issue their press releases.

On a more serious note, this will be the Government’s last budget presentation before the elections, and it is important that it is politically and economically impactful. As the first female finance minister in Jamaica’s history, Fayval Williams now has a golden opportunity to carve out a name for herself. We will see if she utilises it.

– David R. Salmon is a public commentator, development specialist, and a Rhodes Scholar. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and davidsalmon@live.com or on X @DavidSalmonJA.