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JAMAICA ELECTION 2025: ANALYSIS, STRATEGIES, AND early PREDICTIONS

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THE PNP’S PATHWAY TO VICTORY

Published:Sunday | March 9, 2025 | 9:35 AMDavid R. Salmon - Contributor
Opposition Leader Mark Golding with supporters of the People’s National Party ahead of last month’s ceremonial opening of Parliament.
Opposition Leader Mark Golding
Fitz Jackson is one of the Opposition’s stronger members of parliament.
Opposition Leader Mark Golding and members of the People’s National Party march up Duke Street during the 2025 Ceremonial Opening of Parliament in Kingston last month.
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With a general election constitutionally due this year, the People’s National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) are vigorously preparing for the upcoming election. During this season, candidates are being selected (and deselected), allegations of corruption swirl about, and there is an increase in political activity across the country. At this juncture, it is important to analyse the two parties’ strengths, weaknesses, and their respective pathways to victory. Let’s start with the parliamentary opposition.

Going into this election, the PNP’s strategy has been to make every decision a poll on the performance of the administration while it strengthens its organisation on the ground. It is a prudent game plan, and it fulfils the basic functions of an opposition in an almost mechanical way.

Role of the Opposition

The party’s founder and then leader of the opposition, Norman Manley, succinctly articulated the responsibilities of a parliamentary Opposition in a 1967 essay published by the Commonwealth Secretariat. He highlighted, “There must be a constant presentation of the fact that there is an alternative to the existing Government … . The Opposition must maintain a visible leadership; it must renew its strength with young faces and present the reality of an appearance of being capable of tackling the job.”

In this regard, the PNP, basically, has satisfied this requirement. There are a number of fresh faces, which was inevitable due to their electoral wipeout in the last general election. Secondly, there have been some overtures of regeneration, which is evidenced by political gimmicks such as the creation of a Junior Shadow Cabinet. I say gimmick because the effectiveness of this body is negligible at best. Barring one or two members, it is easy to relegate this initiative to the recesses of mental irrelevance.

Composition of Its Team

But these deficiencies have been offset from strong performances as well.

Nekeisha Burchell, the PNP’s information and public communication spokesperson, has been relentless in crafting the party’s message. In terms of parliamentary performance, Donna Scott-Mottley and Lambert Brown are standouts in the Senate as well as Fitz Jackson and Julian Robinson in the House of Representatives. Additionally, Damion Crawford is also known for his robust performance and witticisms both in Parliament and on the political platform. The party also gets Brownie points for placing Gabriela Morris front and centre.

Notwithstanding that, the PNP has also struggled with showing renewal. For example, the selection of candidates such as Ian Hayles should make one question the party’s commitment to “visible leadership” with “young faces”. Hayles was an unimpressive member of parliament with a poor parliamentary attendance record to show for it. While he may fulfil the requirement of loyalty to the party’s leader, his inclusion on the ticket in Westmoreland Western should make anyone ponder the sincerity of the PNP’s pledge to renew its leadership.

Other big wigs also demonstrate such weaknesses. It is difficult to see Natalie Neita-Garvey, the spokesperson for local government and participatory democracy, being effective with a 50 per cent parliamentary attendance record. How is she going to increase democratic participation when she herself barely participates?

Former leadership aspirant Lisa Hanna also shares this poor score card. Hanna, who is arguably one of the more well-known members of the opposition, not necessarily most popular, is gracefully bowing out. That is probably for the best. With a parliamentary attendance record similar to Neita-Garvey’s, it is clear that she is unlikely to be a big factor in the coming years.

So in terms of its selection of visible and youthful leaders, it is a mixed bag. But given that the party is in opposition and talent is usually in short supply, the PNP has to make do with what it has.

Increase in Visibility

Visibility, visibility, visibility. This is the bread and butter of any parliamentary opposition. The recent kerfuffle involving the designation of Portmore as a parish should be seen in this context. The decision to take the matter to court is sound as it exploits a major weakness of the Government – its poor track record of winning constitutional cases. Any potential adverse ruling would be embarrassing for the administration.

It is always welcome seeing increased activity from local representatives in the lead-up to a general election. With the PNP, this is demonstrated with endless press releases and Sunday newspapers littered with columns from shadow spokespersons who have given up being “shadows”. Time will tell whether this makes any difference.

This strategy does, however, improve on a historic weakness of the party. That is, people may like Mark Golding, or, more accurately, are ambivalent about him, but they do not know his team. When members of that team do make themselves known, that haziness turns to mild dislike or even disdain.

Unfortunately, for the PNP, it has leaned too heavily into the third role that Manley articulated for the opposition. That “the duty [is] to oppose … . If by misfortune the Opposition was forced to agree it should see that it agreed with the least possible grace.”

This position has most recently been reflected in the confusion surrounding the constitutional reform process. One day, the party agrees to collaborate, and the next, it is withdrawing its participation.

While parties must seek positive visibility, they must also reject negative visibility. Sadly, the PNP has fallen into a trap of its own making. The controversy involving the Kingston and St Andrew Municipal Corporation and allegations around alleged inappropriate usage of municipal corporation resources is one such example.

Where Are the Ideas?

While Manley’s thesis was made in the context of a young parliamentary democracy, Jamaica is arguably more mature, and the public has higher expectations than what it had in the 1960s. In this regard, the overarching message of the PNP is weak and not even mildly inspiring. Saying to the public, “Look at me. At least we are not as a bad as the JLP,” is unlikely to get anyone below the age of 50 off their verandah and into a polling station.

Hence, a clear articulation as to what the party stands for and what it wants to do is crucial.

‘Time Come’ is the slogan that the public often hears. The party is right. The time has come for it to articulate a more expansive array of policies, especially if it wants its poll lead not to be reduced any further.

PNP caretaker for North West St Catherine Damion Crawford has argued that the PNP does not want to outline its ideas as Labourites are known to steal them around election time. For the mental health of my readers, this comment does not need a response. However, with the current election being imminent and it being too little time to “steal” ideas and effectively implement them, it will be curious to see if the party has any proposal or if this is just political bluster.

At times when it does articulate policy initiatives, these are resoundingly criticised for their impracticality or ridiculousness. This represents another weakness of the party. The organisation must rein in its functionaries as many suffer from the dreaded ‘foot in mouth disease’.

While the PNP has seen an increase in activity, this activity does not guarantee impact. It will be interesting, during the Budget Debate that gets under way this week, to see the position the Opposition adopts. Will it use the added visibility to articulate an overarching vision, or will it retreat into its typical stance of opposing for the sake of it?

David R. Salmon is a public commentator, development specialist, and a Rhodes Scholar. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and davidsalmon@live.com or on X @DavidSalmonJA.