Seat strategy for 2025

The 2025 General Election will see the People’s National Party (PNP) and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) race towards a historic finish. The PNP would need to secure an additional 18 seats while maintaining its own constituencies to win. On the other hand, the JLP cannot afford to lose more than 17 seats to retain office.

Not all constituencies are competitive, and barring any significant shift in the parties’ standings, around 48 to 50 seats can generally be predicted in one way or another. For the PNP, most if not all of the 14 seats it holds will likely not experience major shifts. That includes the party’s urban strongholds of St Andrew Southern, St Andrew South Western, and St Andrew South Eastern. Rural constituencies such as Clarendon South Western and St Mary Central are also solid.

For the JLP, their ‘safe’ seats include their strongholds of Kingston Western, St Andrew North Central, St Andrew North Eastern, St Andrew North Western, and St Andrew West Central. They also have a number of safe seats in the neighbouring parish of St Catherine including, St Catherine Central, West Central, South Central and South Western.

For this election cycle, the seats that are in contention possess a combination of the following characteristics: (1) there is a large presence of young voters below the age of 35; (2) they are predominantly rural communities; and (3) there is a first-term incumbent MP.

The Strategy Out West

Off the bat, the PNP will reap rich rewards in the west, particularly in Westmoreland and Hanover. The five constituencies in these rural parishes are almost certainly going to fall within the PNP’s camp. That is why senior leaders such as the PNP’s vice-president, Ian Hayles, and General Secretary Dr Dayton Campbell are seeking to contest elections in Westmoreland Western and Westmoreland Eastern, respectively. These seats will give them an almost assured win, which would free their hand to campaign in other parishes.

With a seat count of 49, the JLP has an unenviable job, and the party’s strategy will be to sacrifice currently unwinnable constituencies on the altar of pragmatism. So if controversial MP George Wright contests the election, it matters little to the ruling party’s calculations. If he wins, that’s great. If he loses, the JLP had a slim chance of retaining that seat anyway.

This year, St Elizabeth will be very interesting to watch. The race in St Elizabeth North Eastern is less noteworthy as it is expected to vote for the PNP given its history. The more exciting constituencies are St Elizabeth South Eastern and St Elizabeth South Western as they have voted for the party that formed the government every election since 1989.

They are essentially bellwether constituencies, the equivalent of a Pennsylvania for the United States elections. For any party to win, these two seats are crucial. So the PNP will concentrate its efforts in unseating Minister of Agriculture, Fisheries and Mining Floyd Green and his state minister, Franklyn Witter. Voters in these constituencies should not be surprised if the party tries to sow discontent around the fallout from Hurricanes Beryl and Rafael.

There are, however, advantages that are in the administration’s favour. The JLP had a strong showing in St Elizabeth in the last local government election, which augurs well for the party. Additionally, the agriculture minister, being an MP in the country’s agriculture belt, should not be discounted. The JLP will focus on appealing to these constituencies through projects to be executed. This includes the provision of water, roads, and other infrastructure that can be used by these farming-dependent constituencies.

The Southern and Central Parishes

Moreover, the PNP will want to build on its strengthened position in Manchester. Therefore, it is extremely doubtful that first-term MP Rhoda Crawford will retain her seat. Manchester Southern is also expected to swing towards the PNP given that Robert Chin’s competitor is Peter Bunting, a strong campaigner who possesses significant resources.

St Catherine and Clarendon are also parishes to watch. Clarendon Northern and Clarendon North Western are marginal rural constituencies with weak incumbents. The PNP will concentrate its efforts on ensuring that these constituencies are flipped. The party will also seek to increase the turnout of its supporters to clinch St Catherine South Eastern. For the JLP, it will aim to expand its growing lead in St Catherine North Eastern.

To boost its path to victory, the PNP will probably target St Ann South Western and St Ann North Western. However, these seats have increasingly drifted to the JLP’s camp. This was most recently demonstrated by the JLP’s retaining of the Brown’s Town division in St Ann North Western in the local government election. This division has generally oscillated towards the PNP, and the JLP’s strong performance suggests that it has solidified its position in St Ann. As an aside, Portland has also shifted away from the PNP, with both Daryl and Ann-Marie Vaz putting considerable effort and resources into strengthening their holds.

Competition in the Capital

While Kingston and St Andrew will attract attention, being that it is the nation’s capital, most constituencies in this region are unlikely to see any changes. The exceptions to this are the rural seats of St Andrew East Rural and St Andrew West Rural. These are marginal constituencies, and if there is a big enough swing to the PNP, they will be competitive.

St Andrew East Rural is of symbolic importance as it is currently held by Speaker of the House and wife of the prime minister, Juliet Holness. Although, based on her previous performance, it is less certain that this seat will be flipped this election cycle.

In a leaked audio recording, the PNP general secretary was correct in pointing out that the path to victory lies in Central Kingston. While it was expected that the seat would lean PNP, with the fallout from the Lawrence Rowe case, it is to be seen whether this constituency falls within the party’s camp. One vulnerability that the PNP needs to concern itself with is whether anything comes out of the investigations into the matter.

Golding has staked his leadership on integrity. If an adverse finding comes out, his party’s general secretary will come under pressure. To be cynical, Campbell will almost certainly remain in his post, but this could be used to attack the PNP’s credentials as a standard bearer for integrity.

Major Scalps To Target

For the PNP to win, it would have to scalp major ministers. The biggest target will be St Andrew Eastern, currently the seat of Finance Minister Fayval Williams. This is a classic swing seat, and over the last 30 years (the exception being 2020), no candidate has won this seat with a more-than-700-vote difference. Marlene Malahoo-Forte in St James West Central would also be high on the PNP list of ministers to oust as she is the weakest MP in that parish.

Another seat to observe is St James Southern, currently represented by Homer Davis, state minister in the Office of the Prime Minister. It has historically voted for the PNP. However, with the PNP’s declining margins in previous elections, this constituency is now a toss-up.

Furthermore, St James Central, currently held by Deputy Speaker Heroy Clarke, is typically seen as a marginal constituency, but he is likely to retain his seat given the party’s strong performance in last year’s election and Clarke himself being a credible candidate.

St Mary South Eastern should also be watched as it is the consummate swing seat. Since 2002, no party has won the constituency with more than 500 votes, with the exception being in 2020. Lastly, St Mary Western is also another interesting race. Currently held by JLP Chairman Robert Montague, the loss of the Gayle division to the PNP last year was a wake-up call as this division typically votes for the JLP. While the local government results are not a guarantee of the general election, it is important to note that Montague has lost his seat before.

For every election, there are multiple pathways to victory. Let us see how this year plays out. Will Mark Golding’s PNP return to power, or will Dr Holness’ JLP clinch a historic third term?

David R. Salmon is a public commentator, development specialist, and a Rhodes Scholar. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and davidsalmon@live.com or on X @DavidSalmonJA.