NOAA doubles chances for nasty Atlantic hurricane season due to hot ocean, tardy El Niño

Record hot ocean temperatures and a tardy El Niño are doubling the chances of a nasty Atlantic hurricane season this summer and fall, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said Thursday.

With the Atlantic hurricane season already well above normal so far, NOAA increased how many storms to expect and how busy the season can get.

The agency says there's a 60% chance for an above normal hurricane season, twice the agency's May forecast which said it was 30%.

The earlier forecast leaned more toward a near-normal season with a 40%, but the chance for normal has now shrunk to 25%.

Although the NOAA outlook doesn't forecast storm tracks or what places will get hit, a busy season like the one forecast means “there is a doubling of the chance of a hurricane making landfall on the East Coast of the US,” said Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.

NOAA is now forecasting between 14 to 21 named storms, which is an increase over forecasters' initial May forecast of 12 to 17.

A normal year has 14 named storms.

Of those named storms, NOAA predicts six to 11 will become hurricanes, which is more than the five to nine predicted in May.

Normal is seven hurricanes.

Of those hurricanes, NOAA predicts two to five will become major hurricanes with winds of more than 110 mph, which is one more than earlier predictions.

A normal year sees three major hurricanes.

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