Nuclear power: record dwarfs risks

Dennis Morrison, Contributor

In many countries, the catastrophe wrought by the earthquake and tsunami that struck Japan on March 11 would have set off panic. Not so for the Japanese, whose emotional self-containment has been extraordinary, even for them. But their calmness in such a moment of national tragedy should not surprise those with some understanding of the peril that Japanese people endured with the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki during the final stages of World War II in 1945.

One need only pay the briefest visit to the Peace Memorial Park in Hiroshima to have some appreciation of how the Japanese psyche has been shaped by cataclysmic events like no other people in modern history. My own visit to the Memorial Park in March 1999 not only gave me a glimpse of the suffering inflicted by the bombings, but evoked in me emotions that I will never forget. The magnitude of the current destruction is not comparable, and so the Japanese will, in all certainty, persevere in the face of grave human and material losses.

The world's attention has been foremost on the hair-triggering crisis at the Fukushima nuclear power plant. Television coverage of the struggle to control the rupturing of containment vessels and the release of radioactive materials has conjured up images of the Chernobyl nuclear power plant [Ukraine] accident 25 years ago. That accident was devastating, taking a heavy toll on human life, scaring Europeans, and its effects are still being felt in the vicinity of the plant. Also, the political fallout from Chernobyl is believed by some historians to have been part of the confluence of forces that eventually tore the Soviet Union apart.

Deep-felt anxieties

The Fukushima nuclear power plant crisis has once more brought into sharp relief deep-felt anxieties about catastrophic dangers associated with the exploitation of nuclear power as an energy source. Prior to this accident, it appeared that nuclear power would again be pursued aggressively as a leading alternative source of energy even in countries like the US, where public apprehension was most pervasive. China, which has been overwhelmingly dependent on coal, had laid out the most expansive programme for the use of nuclear power, moving in the direction of France, traditionally the country that has used this source most extensively.

Countries were turning to nuclear power in the context of predictions by energy experts that the 50-60 per cent anticipated increase in global energy demand over the next five years would lead to shortages. The slower rate of new discoveries of oil, and the dangers of climate change if gas emissions, especially from coal, were to accelerate, require an adjustment in the current mix of fuel. With technological developments in solar and other alternative-energy sources not expected to proceed at a pace that could fill the gap, an increased role for nuclear power was envisaged. It is also felt that it offers the best alternative in the context of rising prices, and is consistent with the objective of reducing gas emissions.

The heightened fear of the risks of accidents at nuclear power plants, while understandable, do not match the safety records of the industry since it began in the 1950s. Apart from Chernobyl, the other major accident which was far less serious was at Three Mile Island, Pennsylvania, USA, in 1979. There was no loss of life and the after-effects were contained. There are now 440 nuclear reactors operating in 30 countries that account for 14 per cent of the world's electricity supply.

Response to oil shocks

France has had an excellent record in the industry, relying on nuclear power for more than 75 per cent of its electricity supply, and are second to the United States in the size of its installed capacity. France placed its bet on nuclear power as it sought to respond to the oil price shocks of the 1970s. Nuclear power accounts for nearly 80.0 per cent of its electricity-generating capacity, and it is a big exporter of nuclear technology.

Japan is next, depending on the industry for nearly 30 per cent of its electricity production. Hence the accident is disrupting power supply to major industries and population centres. Russia is also an important player in the industry, although its dependence is far less. Nuclear technology has advanced significantly in the past quarter century since the Three Mile Island accident to the point where small-scale plants could be affordable for developing countries. The critical issue has to do with safety standards and the integrity of regulatory systems, about which concerns have been raised in the Japanese case.

To regain public confidence, governments will have to review issues relating to design, siting, safety, and the lifespan of nuclear power plants to demonstrate that they take seriously the risk of disaster.

A striking feature of the globalised and liberalised economic system that now rules is the intensity of speculative forces driving markets. Perception has come to shape economic reality almost as much it does politics. Oil prices shoot up and slide back almost without relation to actual supply and demand. The same thing is happening to stock prices for Japanese companies and the yen. So while some of us are empathising with the suffering of the evacuees, other people are busy speculating on how to capitalise on their plight.

Dennis Morrison is aneconomist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.