Canada goes to the polls

Last Friday, Canada's Conservative government fell in a parliamentary vote of non-confidence. Or more properly, it set itself up to fall.

Prime Minister Stephen Harper runs a minority government, and so he depends on the support of at least one of Canada's three opposition parties for any act of legislation to pass. In fact, Canada has been run by minority governments for the last seven years, and Canadians seem to have to grown fond of this arrangement, since it ensures governments cannot get too arrogant or comfortable in power.

But if Canadians like the arrangement, Stephen Harper clearly does not. He has been salivating for years at the prospect of winning a majority of seats in an election, and polls indicate he may finally be at the point of doing so. Seeing that this was a good time to call an election, his government tabled a budget that, because it offered too few giveaways to the opposition, was bound to invite defeat in Parliament. And so it came to pass.

There is a risk in Mr Harper's tactic. On the one hand, he starts the election with a commanding lead in polls - the nearest party being nearly 20 per cent behind, according to one survey. But on the other, there is little upside in his position. Canadians know him well, most have made their mind up about him, and there is little reason to expect that his current poll standing is anything other than a peak.

Silver lining

For their part, the Liberals, Canada's official opposition party (because it is the biggest), start the race in a relatively weak position: slumped in the polls, and with a leader who does not inspire Canadians, and a message that has so far failed to catch on.

Yet there may be a silver lining to their cloud. Liberal leader Michael Ignatieff has been attacked repeatedly by Conservative ads, which have successfully created an image of him as an aloof, pointy-headed intellectual. However, now that the campaign gets under way, the Liberals, who have kept their powder dry, will come out firing. Mr Ignatieff will get to present himself to Canadians as he wants them to see him, and not as the Tories would like them to see him.

Of course, the campaign may reveal Mr Ignatieff to be, in fact, an aloof, pointy-headed intellectual. I'd like to think not. Mr Ignatieff and I were contemporaries at Oxford (though I hasten to add, he was considerably more senior than I!), and if he turns out to be a drip, well, that won't say much for my plans for world domination. Still, if he reveals any pleasant surprises, the Conservatives may find their poll numbers eroding.

Element of distrust

Moreover, Mr Harper has an Achilles heel. Polls have repeatedly shown that Canadians do not fully trust him. His style of governing, which is presidential and somewhat secretive, has time and again given Canadians reasons to wonder if he has a hidden agenda. He has a tendency to slip up and show a controlling side at inopportune moments. A mishap on the campaign trail could cost him dearly.

The Conserva-tives have done a good job of managing the economy, and so it is likely voters will give them a vote of confidence to remain at the helm. The other thing they may have going for them is that while the progressive vote in Canada is larger than the conservative vote, it is fought over by three parties: the Liberals, the New Democrats and the Bloc Québécois. The Bloc confine their activities to the predominantly French-speaking province of Quebec, so the Liberals and NDP will fight it out in the rest of the country. Should the NDP decide to go after Liberal votes, Mr Harper could try to rise above the fray.

But if all sights are trained on him, he could find himself on the defensive. And should he fail to finally win his majority, it will be clear that Canadians, at the end of the day, just don't want him to have too much power.

He will try assiduously to convince them otherwise.

John Rapley is the Bradlow fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.