Did killing Osama matter? Yes and no

Hollywood casts a long shadow over America. You'd think that after a major coup like last weekend's, President Obama's declaration that Osama bin Laden has been killed would provide sufficient drama.

But, like giddy undergrads, eager White House staffers just couldn't resist dressing it up into a scene from an action-thriller. By the time they were done, the villainous Osama was practically clenching a cigarette in his teeth while growling, "Yankee go home," as he cowered behind Bond girls in a Jacuzzi, releasing a hail of bullets on US troops who yelled, "Make my day!"

Did anybody say Jessica Lynch? It was a successful operation, and juvenile PR. Lost in the resultant clamour of conspiracy theories and criticism has been the question of whether Osama's death really matters. The answer is both no and yes.

Despite all the bravado about decapitating the snake, the death of Osama probably makes little difference to al-Qaida. Once the Taliban were chased out of Afghanistan and he went into hiding, al-Qaida - if such a thing ever truly existed - fragmented into a series of franchise operations. Linkages among them were limited. Communications with Osama and his entourage were few, and there remained little operational direction from the centre.

more symbol than substance

In effect, Osama provided al-Qaida's brand and ideology, but operations were decentralised to regional outfits that followed their own internal logic. The death of Osama changes little in practical terms. On the contrary, now that he is a martyr to the cause, his potency may possibly even augment slightly.

Al-Qaida units will continue to operate as they have for years: as locally run cells, with their own ideological nuances, which look to the image of Osama for inspiration, but little else. And even if there are some successful operations in years to come, it would be easy to overestimate al-Qaida's importance. The regional operations have seldom been able to create traction on the ground, and are sometimes unpopular among locals. With the exception of the Yemen and Iraq units, few of them are effective at the moment - and even the Iraqi one is highly localised.

Besides, in the Muslim world, whatever fashion wave al-Qaida once caught has largely crested. The Arab spring has seen political Islam take a moderate, democratic form. If disconcerting to the US, this type of political Islam is worlds away from al-Qaida's violent radicalism. As a result, al-Qaida has found itself largely behind the curve of the Middle East's politics.

US puppets

Al-Qaida was founded on the basic principle that the governments of the Middle East were apostates that operated largely as US puppets. To kill the snake, you had to take off its head - US support. With Arabs now finding their voices on their own streets, they less and less target their ire at the streets of Washington or London. Killing Osama did nothing to change that. The flow of events in the Muslim world did.

Nonetheless, if the death of Osama comes a bit late in the day to make a difference to al-Qaida, that is not to say it is without significance. On the contrary, 9/11 dealt a savage blow to American self-confidence. That its architect had been able to evade justice for so long was a thorn in the side of the American psyche.

Because the truth is that Hollywood, which, of course, the Americans invented, does indeed cast a long shadow over all of America. Rough justice, a sense that everyone must get their due, and that nobody escapes the sheriff, play a vital role in the country's self-image. With the villain now in the sea, the curtain can finally close on this drama.

If it seems like good cinema to the rest of us, it meant closure for a nation. In the end, that is really why they wanted Osama dead.

John Rapley is the Bradlow fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.