South Africa's emerging two-party system

Two weeks ago, South Africans voted in municipal elections. The poll was closely watched throughout the country as a harbinger of possible changes to the political landscape. Popular frustration with the ruling African National Congress (ANC) has been growing of late, spurred on by corruption scandals and poor service delivery, especially in rural areas. Meanwhile, the opposition, which has been fragmented and ineffective for years, has shown signs of coalescing around the Democratic Alliance (DA) - a party which loosely comes out of South Africa's white liberal tradition.

In the event, the ANC maintained its clear dominance of the country's politics. While its share of the vote dropped, it still polled more than 60 per cent. There remains a generation of black South Africans who - no matter the ineptitude of some politicians - will forever remember that it was the ANC that brought down apartheid.

Nonetheless, election night buoyed the DA, whose share of the overall vote rose substantially from the last election. The DA also took most of the municipalities in Western Cape province, including Cape Town. What this means for the party is that if it can demonstrate its effective governance in this major city, it could use it as a campaign point in future elections.

ethnic voting

Should the DA consolidate its gains in the coming years, we will be seeing the emergence of a two-party system, with one-party dominance (at least for the foreseeable future). Somewhat worrying to the country's future stability is that the political cleavage which is developing runs closely along the country's ethnic divide. Black South Africans vote for the ANC. Whites, Indians and coloureds are now coalescing around the DA.

Because the majority of South Africans are black, this puts the ANC in an obviously advantageous position. However, aside from those in the party who would like to take more of an ethnic line in their politics, this divide is, if anything, more of a concern to the ANC than it is to the DA. Outside KwaZulu/Natal, where the remnants of the Inkatha Freedom Party and its offshoots remain significant, blacks do vote overwhelmingly for the ANC. The problem, as the party leaders acknowledge, is that the party is losing support among other ethnic groups.

Meanwhile, although the DA remains both a minority party and a party for minorities, it has managed to make modest inroads into the black vote. While its share of the black vote remains tiny, owing to its smaller size, the share of its total vote which is black is considerably higher. If the party follows through and puts more and more black faces in government in the municipalities it now controls, it could slowly begin to chip away at the ANC's lock on its support base.

corruption plague

The problem facing the ANC is that which is common to any dominant party. When a party is assured of power, opportunists with no interest in its ideology or platform will worm their way into its ranks. Corruption becomes a constant challenge, as does poor governance. Both problems have bedevilled the ANC of late.

Mindful of the rising popular anger, the party leadership has taken some measures to crack down on some of the worst elements in its ranks. Should municipal councils improve their service delivery as a result, that will augur well for both the party's and the country's future. If not, and if the DA does the good job in office it claims it will do - something which is by no means certain - then a long-term erosion in the ANC's support could result.

This will, however, take place over quite a long term, indeed. Grumble though they may at the quality of some of their municipal councils, the independence generation of South Africans will carry their loyalty to the ANC to their graves. All the same, if political competition begins to increase, it will improve governance for all the country's citizens.

John Rapley is the Bradlow fellow at the South African Institute of International Affairs. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.