Making up one's mind

As a social scientist, you stand back and watch, and observe; society is your laboratory. The recent declaration by Bruce Golding of his intention not to seek re-election as leader of the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP), and to stand down as prime minister after a new leader is elected, provides a good opportunity to do some social research.

People respond to events in patterned ways, according to how they see the world. The vast majority of persons who have written in or spoken to the media sound as if they believe Mr Golding has jumped (left of his own accord, for his own personal reasons), rather than that he has been given a big push (he has left because of intense pressure from others).

JUMPED

Some have said they believe that what Mr Golding has done is an unselfish act, a patriotic act; he has sat down and thought about it, and has decided to do what is best for the country.

Others agree that what Mr Golding has done is an unselfish act, but not with the country in mind; this group believes that he has sat down and thought about it, and has decided to do what is best for the party - how to get the party re-elected. He has looked at the polls and has decided, of his own free will, out of the goodness of his heart, to do what is necessary to help the party stay in power.

Some have psychoanalysed Mr Golding, and have decided that he has buckled under the pressure of office, that the last four years have taken such a toll on him that he can't cope, and has decided to throw in the towel. He just 'canna cross it'.

Others believe he has been negatively affected by his mother's death, and that he is somewhat depressed, and has acted in haste, in a moment of psychological weakness.

Still others believe that Mr Golding is privy to certain revelations soon to come - more extradition requests, and more allega-tions of corruption; and that he has sat down and thought about it, and has decided to leave before the fireworks begin. This is why it has been so much of a surprise, and he has told so few of his intentions and his motives.

PUSHED

Although the majority of the commentators seem to fall in the 'jumped' camp, a smaller number, maybe the more insightful ones, believe that Mr Golding has been pushed to step aside, that he is not going voluntarily.

Some believe he has been pushed by party insiders, afraid of a People's National Party (PNP) victory, and more years in the political wilderness. Apparently, public opinion polls have been commissioned, which have indicated that, under him, the JLP will suffer defeat at the next general election. Some believe that Golding has been pressured to leave for the good of the party, with threats of non-cooperation and obstructionism if he doesn't.

If this scenario were true, you would have expected a tidier transition. His announcement would not have been such a shock to the insiders, and an anointed successor would have been waiting in the wings. The meeting of Shaw supporters at Harold Brady's house to persuade Andrew Holness not to stand could not have been part of this, as the polls are not reported to have favoured Shaw over Golding; the polls favour Holness.

Still others believe that Golding has been pushed by elements in the private sector who back the JLP, out of their self-interest, afraid of a PNP victory, and more years in the economic wilderness without the big contracts. They have seen the polls, and they have their own reasons for wanting Golding out; but the sort of person they want to replace him must facilitate their noses in the trough, must continue their tax waivers, and their government contracts and subcontracts.

Finally, there are the deep conspiracy theorists, who believe that Mr Golding has been pushed by foreign forces. Some believe these foreign forces have their origin in Washington, Ottawa and Brussels, which is bad and not so bad. But others feel these external forces represent interests damaged by the extradition of the leader of the Shower Posse.

Pressure from these quarters can help you to make up your mind rather quickly and resolutely, with no chance of rethinking.

Peter Espeut is a sociologist and environmentalist. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.