Between fear and hope in the Arab world

BY John Rapley

Recent developments in the Middle East provide a mixture of promise and anxiety. The happiest news of late comes from Tunisia, the country that started the whole Arab Spring nearly a year ago. Recent elections saw a massive turnout. In scenes reminiscent of South Africa's 1994 election, voters waited patiently for a chance to finally express themselves at the ballot box.

The result was an election that was largely seen as free and fair, and which brought a moderate Islamist party to power - at the head of what will be a coalition government. So far, Tunisia's Ennahda Party has been saying all the right things, promising to safeguard the country's secular traditions and to make Muslim practices a right, rather than an obligation. If it can carry that moderation into office with it, Tunisia may emerge as a beacon for the Arab world.

In Egypt, by contrast, the democratic transition is starting to look more questionable. The military-controlled government is dragging out the democratic transition it is supposed to be overseeing. This will now stretch out for another two years.

Meanwhile, the military is showing signs of wanting to retain its privileged position in Egyptian politics, if not to retain power outright. A powerful and largely autonomous group with interests of their own throughout the country's economy, Egypt's armed forces are claiming a special status as guardians of the country's emergent constitution.

Dividing the opposition

This stance is dividing the country's democratic opposition. The Islamists, who as in Tunisia are expected to come out at the top of the eventual election, are livid. But some of the secular parties, and those which represent the country's religious minorities, are willing to let the military retain the right to depose governments.

This role - the military as guardian of the constitution - is not unusual in the Middle East. Indeed, it is not unusual in developing countries more generally. It has not always worked to the advantage of democracy, though. Nonetheless, one could say that Turkey, which sees itself as a useful model for Islamic democracy, may point to the role the army can play in a democratic transition. The generals in Ankara more than once overthrew or displaced governments which they saw as standing against the country's secular traditions.

Yet in recent years, the Turkish army has gradually withered into increasing insignificance. Some might say that's because its job was done. Turkey's Islamists, which in the past remained ambivalent about the country's secular system, gradually mellowed in the face of army repression. Today, a moderate Islamist government holds the reins of power, and it has been slowly stripping the generals of their remaining power.

Not ready for democracy

An optimistic interpretation might be that Egypt is not yet ready for full democracy, and that the army is a needed guarantor. The country's Islamists are more fragmented than Tunisia's. There are also more radical strains of Islamism than is the case in Tunisia. Fearing this, secular parties in Egypt are responding favourably to military manoeuvres to lock up more power.

One could also add that Egypt, unlike Tunisia, is not a religiously homogenous country. Its Coptic minority, in particular, has reason to fear some of the more radical elements among the Islamists. However, while the Copts in the past were more tolerant than others of an authoritarian rule they saw defending their interests, it might be a bit desperate for them to hope the military will be benign protectors.

The recent behaviour of the army during Coptic demonstrations, which revealed a willingness on the part of some officers to manipulate the country's religious divisions to their advantage, point to a malevolent strain within the country's officer corps.

It would be a pity if the heroic Egyptian struggles end up returning the country to more of the same: new face, same autocracy. But Tunisia stands as a reminder that the struggle for democracy, though it can suffer setbacks, can also make advances.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.