Black dog and monkey

It is difficult to understand how a black dog could be considered a substitute for a monkey, but the Jamaican maxim is epitomised in the current statistical dead heat between the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and the Opposition People's National Party (PNP) in the recently conducted polls by Professor Ian Boxill and his team.

Hot off the press and carried out just days after Prime Minister of Education Andrew Holness was installed as JLP leader, the findings show that he and his party are just a nose ahead of Portia Simpson Miller's PNP. Despite her consistency, Simpson Miller has not created another bang since 2006. With a margin of error of +/- 4 per cent, respondents indicated that 35.2 per cent of them would vote for the JLP, compared to 32.7 for the PNP, if a general election were held now.

Of course, both parties see this as good news. The incumbent is clearly spurred by this surge, because in the last Gleaner-commissioned Bill Johnson polls and those carried out by veteran pollster Don Anderson, the Holness-led JLP was just over four per cent behind. Even better still, Boxill's July 2010 poll had the ratio at 33 per cent for the PNP to the JLP's 28 per cent. In the wake of the Manatt-Dudus embarrassment, this gap widened to a sizeable chasm in April 2011. With the PNP holding on to 36 per cent of the declared electorate to the JLP's 24.8, the 'Bruised' Golding-headed governing party was so far behind it needed binoculars to see the orange frock tail of Portia and the PNP. Therefore, for a Golding-less JLP, having loaded the bus with Holness in the Driver's seat, to be drawing 'longside the PNP, it is already a moral victory.

On the other hand, Boxill's former lecturer, the PNP's Peter Phillips, is unperturbed knowing that there is a tie, because the 2.5 per cent difference can easily be explained away by the margin of error, which can engulf it. He can say whatever he wants, but facts are facts. The JLP has gained in absolute terms. Because unless one used to skulk from math class in high school, the difference between its 28 per cent in April and its 35.2 today, is 7.2 per cent. Conversely, only an accountant in the pre-FINSAC financial sector or a finance minister who did not anticipate the global economic impact on Jamaica could miss the PNP's loss of 3.3 per cent. Oh, well, Phillips will perhaps use the margin of error to explain away that decline.

Nevertheless, the electorate is really not impressed yet because almost 27 per cent probably will not vote. Some 13.5 per cent of those surveyed fell in the undecided category, while 13.2 per cent said they simply would not cast a ballot.

As regards the anticipated election, 12.5 per cent were unsure as to when it should be called. However, most Jamaican voters want to get it over and done earlier than the late 2012 date. This overwhelming number of a combined 69.5 per cent, split almost equally, feel that the election ought to be held either by year end or mid-2012.

The truth is, the 30-plus per cent held by would-be voters correlates to the split in Parliament. Within these numbers are the diehard Labourites and Comrades. These do not determine the overall outcome of elections.

However, the group that makes the difference is the undecided, who have no enduring loyalty to either party and are not prepared to risk their votes in an unwinnable cause, such as supporting the National Democratic Movement, New Nation Coalition or the ubiquitous Ras Astor Black.

PNP haunted by past

The PNP has not convinced the public that it is ready to return to power. Furthermore, it took much prodding from its detractors and elements within the media before it revealed its overall development plan. This, when examined by experts and lesser-informed commentators was unconvincing and bland. Add to that the Jamaica Emergency Employment Programme (JEEP), which sounds nice but more like a political than an economic or developmental plan, and we are still in wonderland.

After all, a PNP administration, which was in power when the financial sector crumbled and had to be FINSAC'd, and when Cash Plus, Olint and the other Ponzi schemes blossomed without sanction and regulation, has to tell us clearly what it will do better this time. It does little to the PNP's case that the former finance minister, Omar Davies, was inexplicably relieved of his shadow portfolio while the FINSAC enquiry was going on and Cash Plus is still in the courts.

True, between 1989 and 2007, the country saw more housing solutions than in any other time in our history, a reduction of poverty, and a steady decline in unemployment. However, the gap between rich and poor widened to embarrassing levels. Furthermore, it is under Phillips' watch that crime rose to catastrophic levels with homicides passing the 1,500 mark for the first time since the 1739 Maroon treaty.

Despite a breath of fresh air in some new candidates such as maverick former PNP Youth Organisation President Damian Crawford, the party still has much of the old guard. With Phillips and Simpson Miller seen as the main faces of the party - a move she should have made in 2006 - the word has to be, 'What's new?'

Now, as the JLP gears up to face the electorate, it has a new face in Holness. However, he lacks the charisma and spontaneity which endear politicians to the masses. True, he has continuously won his seat in a divided constituency, but he must not assume that being placed in a position as the default driver means that the entire Jamaica wants him.

Furthermore, the party still has Mike Henry, Pearnel Charles and a few other antediluvian characters who, despite their experience and sharpness of wit, tell us that it is the 'same old party'. It is doing its audits and is trying to determine if the St Mary electors want to un-Tarnish the chances of the party. Blemished Member of Parliament Joseph Hibbert is stepping down and horse doctor, St Aubyn Bartlett, has bowed to his 'neighsayers'. But the real question is what have the Labourites given this country since 2007?

The Jamaica Debt Exchange reduced the national debt and interest rates, and inflation is in single digits, a feat which proved daunting for the PNP. Furthermore, however unwittingly, they shot down the homicide rate after the extradition of Christopher Coke. Yet, poverty is rising like yeast in a bakery and unemployment is the antithesis of the 'jobs, jobs, jobs' they promised. With an unstable International Monetary Fund (dis-)agreement and the rich/poor gap increasing even more than under the PNP, there is little for Holness and crew to boast about.

So, in the end, what do we have? It's really like a Jack Mandora, mi nuh choose none.

Dr Orville Taylor is senior lecturer in sociology at the UWI and a radio talk-show host. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.