EDITORIAL - Looking behind the polls

In the face of the remarkable surge in support for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) and its leader-designate, Andrew Holness, some commentators and political supporters have started questioning the accuracy of these recent polls.

It comes as no surprise, for when the results are unfavourable, the age-old backlash reaction is to question the accuracy of the polls and sometimes the integrity of the pollsters. It's the classic case of shooting the messenger if you don't like the message.

Elections are constitutionally due by late 2012, but there are soundings from political platforms to suggest that it could be held this year, and the campaigning has sharpened.

Many blame the media for their lack of polling literacy, which means they tend to focus on who is on top and ignore the issues covered in the polls and the methodology used by the pollsters. The polling literacy of the media is an important factor in ensuring that the campaign is not seen as a horse race but a serious attempt to understand what Jamaicans regard as the critical issues influencing their opinions.

Could the surge in the JLP's popularity be explained by that feeling that here is a fresh young leader carrying a wounded party across the finish line? Meantime, many are asking, what has Andrew Holness done for the JLP to deserve the rebound showed by the latest polls? Conversely, others are wondering what more Portia Simpson Miller needs to do to make a compelling case for re-election.

Impact of opinion polls

It was during the 1980s that the late University of the West Indies professor, Carl Stone, perfected the conduct of opinion polls backing up his field work with sociological and psychological research to produce high-quality, accurate poll results. Since then, several new players have entered the field, and opinion polls have blossomed into a staple of election campaigns in Jamaica.

There are various theories about the impact of opinion polls on the voting population. And even though their precise influence on the electorate is hard to measure, many agree that they do have an impact. The effect varies from siding with the winner to being sorry for the underdog, to displaying complacency and not voting at all. Many argue that polls have the same effect as debates, books and any other literature that seek to identify the issues and point to the party best capable of dealing with them.

In the European Union, there are blackout dates for releasing poll data during an election week. In other countries, they have introduced legislation forbidding the release of polling data after nomination day has been announced. Clearly, there is some concern about the impact of poll data in these democracies.

So can opinion polls be trusted? Even though politicians and their supporters sometimes point to flawed results and bias, they often use these snapshots of public opinion to determine their marginal constituencies and weak candidates. These polls often determine where they spend campaign money and who are included in their slate of candidates.

Let the polling continue, by all means, but let us hear more about the views of persons who have become cynical about the democratic process. Let's ensure that this election is a celebration of our democracy.