JLP 36, PNP 27 & GDP

Egerton Chang, Contributor

My only venture (so far) into the election prediction game, about the United States midterm elections, was published on October 17, 2010 ('Poppa, responsibilities of children and Obama').

I wrote on November 21, 2010 ('Security, Obama and Paraprosdokian') the results of this forecast:

"My predictions regarding the US midterm elections were just a trifle off. As forecast, the House did go to the Republicans, but also as predicted, the Senate remained in the hands of the Democrats.

"The prediction for the Senate was actually spot on. As for the one undecided senate seat in Alaska, the Republicans will win regardless of whether Murkowski or Miller wins. Bear in mind that my predictions were made more than two weeks before the election, and that I was unwavering in my senate forecast.

"In a senate election, where only a handful of pollsters hit the results on the head and where quite a few were even predicting that the Republicans could take control, my prediction must rank at the very top.

"I ventured into this prediction game to demonstrate that an intelligent observer could perform as well as, if not better, than those seasoned pollsters and political pundits."

With my monthly column being published less than two weeks after the Jamaican general election, I am 'forced' to make my prediction now. If a day (or is it a week?) in politics is like a lifetime, I would be a cat with nine lives.

Before I reveal my prediction, however, I would like to point out that a weather forecaster gives his/her analysis of the weather patterns and then makes a forecast. He/she has no vested interest in what that forecast is. Well, I am like a weather forecaster.

What I observe is a certain willingness to forgive Holness (His Holiness) for the sins of others in his own party. Whether it's just a matter of hope or a case of 'no better herring, no better barrel', if this feeling carries even two to three per cent of the electorate, that could give the JLP the additional push it requires to take it past the post.

There is also a sympathy factor which says that Holness is doing a creditable job trying to plug the holes in the bucket he has been given to carry water. That group's sentiments are: "If Andrew can perform under such a burden, let's give him a try with his own term."

Quite a few persons were impressed by how smooth the transfer of power by acclamation was made and the timely coalescing around Holness. This is diametrically opposed to the history of the JLP and the PNP of recent past.

Anyway, without any further delay, my prediction for the general election is: JLP 36, PNP 27.

There, I have exposed my behind to be kicked. So what! If I err, approximately half of the electorate would be equally wrong.

Supporters of the PNP may say that this gap can be closed in the two weeks remaining, but with the first-past-the-post (FPTP) system that we have, this is highly unlikely. If anything, I would say that I would have erred on the side of underestimating the number of seats for the JLP, especially if their leader's 'coat-tail' turns out to be long.

Let's see how this prediction stacks up against the many more seasoned commentators, pundits and pollsters who, if anything, would have more up-to-date information at the time of their predictions closer to election day.

GDP growth

In this election cycle, a lot has been said about Jamaica's GDP growth rate. I set out below the facts according to the World Bank (http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG/countries):

GDP growth (annual %) - JAMAICA

GDP Population

YEAR	Growth %		Growth%
1981	2.6		1.36
1982	2.1		1.73
1983	1.9		1.83
1984	-1.5		1.73
1985	-2.9		1.36
1986	1.9		1.06
1987	7.9		0.63
1988	4.0		0.25
1989	7.2		0.78
1990	4.2		0.63
1991	4.8		0.67
1992	2.0		0.70
1993	9.4		0.74
1994	1.4		0.77
1995	2.3		0.81
1996	-0.1		1.20
1997	-1.1		0.96
1998	-2.3		0.89
1999	1.0		0.68
2000	0.9		0.58
2001	1.3		0.59
2002	1.0		0.49
2003	5.0		0.31
2004	1.4		0.47
2005	1.0		0.47
2006	2.7		0.48
2007	1.4		0.48
2008	1.7		0.43
2009	-2.5		0.31
2010	-0.5		0.25

30-YEAR PERIOD 1981-2000 58.2 23.64

Annual percentage growth rate of GDP at market prices is based on constant local currency. Aggregates are based on constant US$2,000. GDP is the sum of gross value added by all resident producers in the economy, plus any product taxes and minus any subsidies not included in the value of the products. It is calculated without making deductions for depreciation of fabricated assets or for depletion and degradation of natural resources.

World Bank national accounts data, and OECD National Accounts data files.

index mundi (http://www.indexmundi.com/facts/jamaica/population-growth#SP.POP.GROW)

Those are the facts.

I will note some observations:

1) Save for the five-year period 1987-1991, there has been no other sustained period of moderate growth. This said period straddles two administrations.

2) While the JLP is currently undergoing some major challenges, the PNP also had its own similar three-year period of negative growth in GDP, from 1996-1998.

3) In fact, for the seven-year period during the PNP administration, 1996-2002, the aggregate growth rate in GDP was under one per cent.

4) For the entire 30-year period, 1981-2010, the average annual growth rate was under two per cent.

5) When one factors in population growth, Jamaica's per capita growth rate has been a paltry one per cent per annum. A pessimist might say if the growth in the population had not been ameliorated by approximately one per cent per annum, there would be no per capita growth in GDP.

I am sure one could, and will, make more observations, but I will leave it at that.

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