Will the real pollster please stand up?

THE EDITOR, Sir:

The art of polling is one that I will never pretend to understand, although I accept that there must be a science that a lot of us would love to be able to master.

There are those of us who applaud the poll results whenever we are happy with the findings and then deride the same pollster(s) whenever we are unhappy.

I will not deny that I feel comfortable whenever the polls reflect that the party I support is in the lead and start to ask all sorts of questions whenever they say otherwise. In all of this, I am not questioning the integrity of the pollsters and I have admitted that I do not understand the science.

I will admit, also, that there have been times when I have questioned poll findings, as sometimes it has appeared that pollsters submitted findings in keeping with their own political findings. The fact that I have never, in the 30-plus years that we have had polls in Jamaica, had any questions asked of me by a pollster - nor have I ever encountered anyone who has been so favoured - tends to make me a bit sceptical. Despite my scepticism, I still retain my respect in the integrity of the pollsters.

The latest polls by three different pollsters have revealed a significant difference in the findings, with two showing the PNP ahead while the other shows the JLP in the lead. Obviously, all three cannot be correct, and the proof of the pudding will be in the eating in less than a week's time.

My major problem with polls, however, is that most times we have just had the percentage of votes predicted, and I believe in a few instances, we have had overall seat predictions. What I am hoping to see by the pollsters is a seat-by-seat prediction. I won't go as far as to ask for a voter turnout prediction, although I am tempted to. Very often, when predictions are given, a pollster will say 33-27, 34-26, 40-20 (figures can be adjusted to reflect the increased number of seats).

I would like to challenge the ollsters to give us a seat-by-seat prediction so we can see just who the real pollster is. Will my challenge be taken up?

BALVIN LESLIE

Savanna-la-Mar PO