REPORTER'S NOTEBOOK - Ignoring the polls at my peril

That poll showed that in one week the People's National Party (PNP) had gained six percentage points to erase a Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) four percentage-point lead and move into a numerical advantage over the governing party.

Johnson had indicated that the situation was very fluid and the surge could be linked to the JLP's inept handling of the United States spy plane disclosure and the issues surrounding the Jamaica Development Infrastructure Programme.

But for seasoned political watchers such as members of The Gleaner's political team, the poll seemed an aberration, as there was nothing on the streets and in the constituencies we had visited to explain the swing.

However, in hindsight, it is obvious that the poll provided an indication that we ignored.

With the PNP gaining just under one percentage point popular support each day in the period December 11-18, or a total of six percentage points in one week, the Gleaner-Johnson poll was indicating a momentum for the party which was not clearly visible on the ground.

With the final Gleaner-Johnson poll done 11 days before Jamaicans voted, that momentum would have given the PNP a further nine percentage points in popular support or a lead of 11 per cent over the JLP, which could easily translate to 65 per cent of the seats in the Lower House.

Missed the momentum

But armed with historical and anecdotal data, plus the poll findings, The Gleaner conducted its seat-by-seat analysis and missed the momentum which that last poll was showing.

This led the team to conclude that the JLP seemed headed for victory, although the PNP was still in with a shout.

"JLP look good but PNP not yet out of it," shouted The Gleaner on December 27, as it projected 23 safe seats for the JLP and 20 for the PNP, with a further 20 up for grabs.

But of those seats deemed marginal, The Gleaner predicted that 11 would go to the JLP and nine to the PNP.

This would have given the JLP 34 seats to the PNP's 29 and an election victory for the Andrew Holness-led party.

"Gleaner calls it for the JLP but gives tame headline," crowed the JLP's young-professional group G2K in the immediate aftermath of The Gleaner's publication as it preened for a second consecutive victory.

Come December 29, the voters spoke, and three of the seats The Gleaner had declared safe for the JLP were won by the PNP.

In West St Mary, Robert Montague was dethroned by Joylan Silvera, Ernest Smith lost South West St Ann to the PNP's Keith Walford and Lloyd B. Smith captured the new Central St James constituency from Heroy Clarke despite expectations that the configuration could make it a JLP stronghold.

Of the marginal seats which The Gleaner had projected would be won by the JLP, only two performed as expected, with Pearnel Charles triumphing in North Central Clarendon and J.C. Hutchinson in North West St Elizabeth.

On the PNP side, every Gleaner projection came through, giving it the anticipated 29 seats. Then the Portia Simpson Miller-led party kicked into overdrive and collected 12 more in a backsiding of the JLP that not even the most 'rock-stone' Comrade could project.

Hindsight, they say, is 20/20 vision, and in hindsight it is obvious that the Johnson poll of December 17 and 18 was a dead giveaway as to where the election was headed.

But this was ignored and the results have confirmed that science should not be cast aside.

By the way, others who predicted a PNP victory were also well off the mark about the winners and losers. After all, Dr Ken Baugh, Gregory Mair and Damion Crawford are set to make it into Gordon House.

Arthur Hall is a senior staff reporter at The Gleaner.