Irrational exuberance?

Lambert Brown, Contributor

A beaming and confident Portia Simpson Miller, Jamaica's seventh prime minister, was sworn in last Thursday to commence a second stint as prime minister. Sorry, not the 10th prime minister as the Observer editorial and a talk-show host so stubbornly proclaimed on Thursday morning. The simple fact is that you cannot get a 10th prime minister when only nine Jamaicans (including Portia) have ever been sworn in and served as prime minister.

To some, this fact may be mere trivia. However, it is symptomatic of the way many of our opinion makers operate. Their views tend to be based on wishful thinking rather than following the evidence where it leads. The fact that so many of our media commentators called the election so wrong and today are still eating crow is indeed another example of ignoring the evidence and making wishful thinking dominate.

Last Sunday's Gleaner was filled with mea culpa, with at least three columnists saying they got it wrong. They were not alone. Some regular 'political analysts' on television who are foisted on the public as impartial even went as far as predicting a win for the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). One declared the JLP would win as many as 38 seats. Fortunately, the majority of the voting public is far more discerning than the reporters, pollsters, columnists and analysts who got the results so wrong.

Bruised egos

That the producers of opinion are out of step with the majority of voters should cause some bruised egos among the commentators. While differences in opinion help democracy to flourish, it behoves those of us who seek to influence public opinion to spend a little more time being evidence based, even if that will mean that some will think you are displaying irrational exuberance.

In his column last week, Ian Boyne stated: "In communication with me last weekend, Lambert Brown said, 'Thursday will be a big night for Portia and the PNP,' but I thought that was irrational exuberance." To his own opinion of my evidence-based prediction, Ian Boyne is entitled; however, it is absolutely wrong for him to make up his own facts. This is what he did when he wrote: "No one saw it coming." He was referring to the massive People's National Party's (PNP) landslide victory.

Having admitted that I told him about the impending big victory for Portia and the PNP, Boyne went on to write: "No one expected this tsunami." It would appear that my friend Ian was still living in a state of denial and unable to recognise that some of us saw it coming. The signs that he is changing residence are very encouraging.

There is a poem by Marianne Williamson titled Our Deepest Fear, which says: "Your playing small does not serve the world. There is nothing enlightened about shrinking so that other people won't feel insecure around you." I am not one for blowing my own trumpet, but when with courage and knowledge one stands against the madding crowd and correctly proclaims an outcome, the blowing of the trumpet is demanded.

I say more so in the context of The Gleaner's Senior Staff Reporter Arthur Hall admitting he and The Gleaner's political writers wrongly called the election for the JLP. Hall, like Boyne, went on to state: "But for seasoned political watchers such as members of The Gleaner's political team, the poll seemed an aberration, as there was nothing on the streets and in the constituencies we had visited to explain the swing." Here, the Gleaner team, which was praised by G2K, is dead wrong.

On Saturday, June 18, 2011, The Gleaner reported: 'St Elizabeth farmers not impressed by minister'. The minister was Christopher Tufton, and the farmers were from his very own South Western St Elizabeth constituency who booted him from office. In that article, one farmer declared, "We are in a financial bind, and everybody is feeling it. The Government itself is causing a lot of problems for farmers." The Gleaner article ended this way: "We haven't seen Tufton for the longest while. Nobody hear from him, nobody see him. This is his constituency ... . We don't have any communication with him." The evidence was there and elsewhere. The Gleaner team must take the blame for refusing to look and listen sufficiently.

Two Fridays before the election, I had a conversation with Arthur Hall, in which he predicted the JLP would win 37 to the PNP's 26. I laughed at him and told him that the PNP would win big with more than 40 seats. He stood firm in his opinion. As a test of his views, I asked him about Ernie Smith's seat in South West St Ann. He declared it a safe JLP seat. I knew then that he was so wrong. I told him that the boundary changes and the new PNP candidate would guarantee a PNP victory there. Election night again proved me right, yet on Sunday, Arthur wrote the following: "Then the Portia Simpson Miller-led party kicked into overdrive and collected 12 more in a backsiding of the JLP that not even the most 'rockstone' Comrade could project."

truth my guide

I may not be a rockstone Comrade, but I had enough insight and close on-the-ground links to be able to have predicted a very big win for the PNP. My public interventions are neither Lambert Brown's 'yearning' nor 'irrational exuberance'. They come from a skill developed from working closely with the people as a youth-club leader and trade unionist, combined with political science learnt over several decades. I make truth my guide, no matter where it leads.

Declarations of bias do not diminish the authenticity or veracity of the research-base contribution I bring to public discourse. During the election campaign, I was fortunate to spend some time close to Portia Simpson Miller on the trail. I saw, upfront, the growth in her confidence, heard her speak of a possible landslide victory, saw her hug not only her own supporters but flag-waving Labourites and experienced the immense love and loyalty the people displayed to her.

There was absolutely no doubt that she would lead the PNP to victory, creating history by making the JLP the first one-term government in nearly 50 years of Independence. The despised stone has become the head cornerstone and the PNP ignore that at its peril.

Lambert Brown is president of the University and Allied Workers Union. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and Labpoyh@yahoo.com.