Raw facts about the Don Anderson call

Kishka-Kaye O'Connor Anderson, Contributor

In the recently concluded general election, the People's National Party (PNP), with its 'People Power' campaign, won by a landslide with 42 out of 63 seats declared in their favour. Don Anderson and his team of researchers have been tracking the pulse of the Jamaican people with regards to their attitudes towards the Government and the Opposition since 2007.

Closer to election day, Don Anderson was commissioned to do surveys to monitor more closely how Jamaicans were likely to vote on December 29, 2011. These surveys were commissioned by the CVM Group, the Observer newspaper, as well as the two major political parties, the PNP and the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP). The Don Anderson polls are generally recognised as being the most credible, as they correctly called the last two general elections. In an interview with host Garfield Burford on CVM TV's 'Direct' on Tuesday, December 27, Don Anderson indicated that there were 51 seats that he could declare, 28 for the PNP and 23 for the JLP. He further indicated that there were another 12 battleground seats, six of which were comfortably trending towards the PNP. These are highlighted in the attached table denoted by 'PNP?'.

The other six seats were held by the JLP but were not considered safe seats for the party in the general election. However, as there was not sufficient information available on these seats to allow Don to make a definitive or speculative call, they were left open, especially as they were solidly held by the JLP, and also as all the other data available showed that the PNP would be the likely winner of the election.

In that interview, Don confirmed that he was indeed calling the general election, and predicted a victory for the PNP, with 34 seats. However, it was asserted that this seat count could be bigger, depending on the outcome of the six seats he was unable to call. The table attached outlines the Don Anderson seat count position leading up to the election.

The Final Outcome

In the final analysis, Don Anderson took a position on 57 of the 63 seats, that is, he declared 51 seats and said six of the remaining seats were trending towards the PNP (see table). He also made it very clear that the remaining six seats were open, and the outcome would be determined by the party with the better election-day machinery.

Don was 93 per cent correct with his call, as 53 of the 57 seats he had a position on went in the direction he said or expected them to go while four did not. These four which were declared by Don for the JLP but went to the PNP were:

1. St Andrew West Rural, with Andrew Gallimore for the JLP and Paul Buchanan for the PNP.

2. St Mary Western, with Robert Montague for the JLP and Jolyan Silvera for the PNP

3. Hanover Eastern, with Paula Kerr-Jarrett for the JLP and D.K. Duncan for the PNP.

4. St Elizabeth South West, with Christopher Tufton for the JLP and Hugh Buchanan for the PNP.

The above four seats were not studied leading up to the election, as they were expected to be safe for the JLP, primarily because of the JLP's historical performance in these areas.

The Electoral Office of Jamaica reported that 867,381 persons voted in the December 29 election. Of this number, 53 per cent voted for the PNP and 47 per cent for the JLP (Sunday Gleaner, January 1, 2012). In the last national poll conducted by Don Anderson and his team of researchers, a poll commissioned by the PNP, it was reported that 41.4 per cent of electors were expected to vote for the PNP and 37.2 per cent for the JLP.

The remaining 21.4 per cent indicated that they did not know which party they would vote for or would not do so for any of the two major parties. A close analysis of the 78.6 per cent of the persons who said they would vote for either of the two major parties shows that when taken out of a base of 100 per cent, this translates to 53 per cent for the PNP and 47 per cent for the JLP. This is exactly the outcome of the last month's general election.

Don Anderson was SURELY RIGHT, not DEAD WRONG, as some naysayers and critics said leading up to election day 2011. Market Research Services Ltd, home of the Don Anderson polls, is completely satisfied that its methodology used to influence Don Anderson's successful call of the 2011 general elections is solid and continues to yield reliable and credible results.

Kishka-Kaye O'Connor Anderson is chief operating officer of Market Research Services Ltd. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and donanderson@flowja.com.

DON ANDERSON CONSTITUENCY PREDICTIONS - 2011 GENERAL ELECTION