Stumbling towards war in the Middle East

By John Rapley

With the Israelis, Americans and Iranians all now talking openly of war, conflict this year is looking ever more unavoidable. Both the Iranians and Israelis are apparently engaged in covert activities: the Israelis to kill Iranian nuclear scientists, the Iranians to kill Israeli diplomats.

The price of oil, which would shoot up in the event of a war, continues rising towards the dangerous territory it reached before the 2008 global financial crisis.

The war train has left the station, and it may soon have its own impetus. For the Israelis and Americans, it is imperative that the Iranians not develop the capacity to produce a nuclear bomb. It is not immediately obvious that the Iranians could ever develop a usable device, nor that they would ever have an interest in using it. But given the public statements about Israel by the current Iranian president, the Israelis don't want to wait around to find out.

The Israelis are talking loudly about an attack on Israel. To some extent, this is diplomatic posturing - and rather effective posturing, at that. By focusing the world's attention on Iran's potential nuclear threat, the Israeli government has built international support for its position.

Hurtling towards destiny

However, there is a danger that all the sabre-rattling will create a self-fulfilling prophecy. If the Americans are convinced Israel is going to act unilaterally, they may back away from a firm commitment to doing the deed. Israel will then have to carry out its threat on its own. This would bring forward the attack date.

For their part, the Iranians may actually want an armed conflict, at least a limited one. Not the Iranian people, of course, who would suffer terribly in a war, and a good deal of whom would like to see the back of their current government. But some in the security Establishment would stand to gain if Israel attacked Iran.

At the time of the last Iranian presidential election, which was hotly contested in street protests, the Iranian supreme leader looked to his country's security apparatus to shore up the regime. This handed an inordinate degree of control to the generals. A war would further reinforce their position.

For one thing, popular support would likely rally to them. Not only would it be a natural reaction for ordinary Iranians to look to their soldiers to protect them, but the Iranian nuclear programme has always enjoyed broad support across the country's political spectrum. While the generals will not want an all-out war, some kind of fighting is likely to serve their interests.

The Iranians are unlikely to retreat from their determination to build a nuclear programme. Just as Israel considers the possibility of an Iranian bomb an existential threat, the Iranians consider nuclear capability a key element in their security arsenal.

Backing iran into a corner

Unlike the Israelis, the Iranians don't have a powerful ally. Instead, they have to contend not only with the Israelis and Americans, but with several Arab states that dislike Iran intensely. At the same time, ironically, the toppling of Saddam Hussein removed their chief regional counterweight. They no doubt feel both threatened and emboldened at the same time - a dangerous combination.

Firm diplomacy by the Americans seems to be the only thing which can head off war. But American presidents rarely stand to gain anything from venturing into the Middle Eastern quagmire. At no time is this more the case than during an election year. If those in the Israeli government who are trying to avoid war are hoping Barack Obama may promise to do everything necessary to defend Israel, thereby calling off the Israeli hawks, they may be disappointed.

A dangerous dynamic has been set in motion. It may now prove difficult to stop. Get ready for a season of expensive fuel bills.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.