KSAC race not a done deal

by Shalman Scott

Of the 40 seats in the Kingston and St Andrew Corporation (KSAC), the Jamaica Labour Party (JLP) won 23 to the then Opposition People's National Party's (PNP) 17 in the local government elections of December 5, 2007.

This outcome gave the JLP a fairly comfortable majority of six seats, allowing for greater political ease in managing the local affairs of Kingston and St Andrew. This reality was further facilitated and bolstered by a JLP Government in power nationally and Desmond McKenzie both as mayor of the KSAC and also a member of the Senate.

However, since the general election on December 29, 2011, there has been some realignment in terms of the power dynamics in respect to the KSAC and the Government, eventuated by a landslide victory of the PNP in terms of parliamentary seats. There are 15 such seats in the Kingston and St Andrew Corporation.

The PNP now has 11 seats - up from eight - to the JLP's four. On the face of this improved parliamentary performance by the PNP - winning from the JLP West Rural St Andrew, Eastern St Andrew and East Rural St Andrew - one could conclude that it should be easy sailing in the impending local government elections for the PNP.

Even more so because of the theory of the tail following the body where, customarily, the political party in power at the central government level wins the local elections also.

There have been exceptions to this pattern on at least three occasions since Jamaica's first general local government polls in 1947. The first occasion was in 1951 when the PNP won a majority in most of the councils and again in 1986 when all except one, St Thomas, went into the orange column. The JLP was in power in both instances.

Then in 2003, the JLP flipped the script and won the local government elections - and handsomely too - while the PNP was in power.

Close look at divisions

In light of the upcoming local elections, what will be the result in the KSAC? Will the JLP retain control or lose it?

I wish to look at the implications for the local elections as a consequence of the results of the last general election in the three constituencies the PNP won from the JLP. Down from 12 (Chancery Hall division removed from West Rural St Andrew to North West St Andrew), there are now 11 KSAC seats in the constituencies of West Rural, East Rural and Eastern St Andrew. Of that number, the PNP won in four, tied with the JLP in the Kintyre division in East Rural St Andrew, and lost in six seats to the JLP.

In a region where the PNP swept all parliamentary seats, it simultaneously did not win seven of the 11 divisions to the KSAC based on the general election results which, though not predictive, is certainly indicative.

This scenario has played out in some of the other parishes, with the exception of St Catherine, including Portmore; St Ann; Westmoreland; and Manchester, where the data are projecting comfortable wins for the PNP.

Consequently, the strategists in the PNP know that this March's local government elections, while having familiar patterns, are different in a number of ways, which emphasises the point that both parties have unfinished business.

Tight race

The second layer of analysis focuses on how the performance of the aforementioned three constituencies and 11 divisions relates to the remaining 12 constituencies and the other 29 divisions within the KSAC.

The results of the 2011 general election are projecting a possible 21 seats for the PNP to the JLP's 18, with the Kintyre division tied at 1,776 votes each for either party. The Red Hills division in West Rural St Andrew and the Rae Town division in Central Kingston, while reflecting a PNP win, the empirical evidence shows that majority support for the PNP in these areas is fleeting at best.

This is in contrast to the Papine division in Eastern St Andrew and the Trafalgar division in South Eastern St Andrew won by the PNP, which will remain, in my view and based on historical patterns, firmly in the PNP corner.

Whichever way the matter is sliced, control of the KSAC is not a done deal for either party. Accordingly, the PNP has just a slight mathematical advantage going into the upcoming local elections.

Though it holds the Government, the PNP will have to ramp up its campaign machinery and hit the trenches to consolidate its gains. Meanwhile, the JLP game plan must be well coordinated in terms of strategic use of its money, messaging and mobilisation if it hopes to regain lost ground.

Shalman Scott is a political analyst. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.