Rebellion brews in South Africa

By John Rapley

South Africa's ruling ANC faces a rebellion inside its youth wing. The key players may not have the noblest of motives, but the issues over which they are fighting deserve an airing.

The ANC Youth League is in open rebellion against the party. Its leader, a populist named Julius Malema, has been openly deriding the country's leadership, including his former ally, President Jacob Zuma, while calling for a more radical economic programme.

The straw that broke the ANC's back came when Malema called for the overthrow of the government of neighbouring Botswana. In an anti-colonial rabble-rouser, this may have been good politics. But it made for lousy foreign relations. The ANC decided enough was enough and suspended Malema for five years. Malema has appealed, and the leadership of the ANC Youth League has thrown its lot in with him. It is playing a high-stakes poker game in which it is practically daring the ANC to shut down the youth organisation.

The ANC has a real problem. Malema is a loose cannon. Having committed to removing him, the party leaders cannot now back down without a serious loss of face. Should they do so, it will reveal that Malemas gamble - that he has sympathisers at the top - paid off. President Zuma himself would then look crippled.

There is a strong air of opportunism and corruption around Malema, no doubt. He, and a circle of cronies around him, have amassed a fortune that they have a hard time explaining - that is, on those few occasions when they condescend to requests to try. Nonetheless, whether he is sincere or cynical, he gives voice to a chorus of sentiment that is real, and justified.

To date, South Africa's rainbow nation has failed poor people, the vast majority of whom are black. If you are educated, or close to the upper echelons of the ruling party, it's great to be black in free South Africa. But most South Africans are neither. And even if Malema's populist policies would, if implemented, probably do little to improve the lot of his compatriots, the anger he channels is understandable.

It is not that there has been no progress. Houses have been built in the townships, they have been given electricity and running water, schools have been improved, and of course, everyone can vote. Nonetheless, all you have to do is spend an afternoon walking through any township, and you see that the new demand is overwhelming the supply.

Income distribution worsened

Meanwhile, South Africa's economic growth is not delivering widespread gains. The end of apartheid was supposed to narrow the immense gap the racist regime had opened up between whites and blacks. It has only done so to the extent there are now rich blacks, and even a few poor whites. But overall income distribution has actually worsened, and is now probably the worst on the planet. Meanwhile, South Africa has created too few jobs to mop up the immense unemployed population.

One cannot help wonder how long things can go on like this. In effect, what liberation did in 1994 was form a link between the white business class and the black political class. There resulted what I have elsewhere called an anti-growth regime. In return for policies that protected them against undue competition, white businesses lavished the black elite with generous positions on boards and in corporate offices, and with political donations.

Malema offers no real solution to this. From what can be discerned of his presence in government in his home province of Limpopo, he operates very much like the politicians he has criticised. It appears he just wants in on the national action, and is using his 'threat' leverage to force his way into the inner sanctum.

Malema is no Mandela, but the nation sorely needs another Mandela-like figure to put the interests of poor black South Africans on the national agenda. If that doesn't happen soon, there will be a social explosion. Malema may have been removed, but the chorus has grown too loud to be silenced.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.