Assad's demise may hurt Israel's security

Last week, when a suicide bomber boarded a bus in Bulgaria and blew himself up, taking six Israeli tourists with him, he inflamed passions in the Middle East.

Israel immediately accused the Iranians, suggesting their Lebanese allies, Hezbollah, were behind the attack. While they did not offer evidence for their claim with the same speed at which they made it, the Israelis may have had good reason to believe what they were saying.

For starters, the incident appears to bear the hallmarks of a Hezbollah attack. In recent months, a pattern of similar attacks on Israeli targets have taken place in third countries. In some, evidence seems to indicate Iranian involvement. So suspicion of Hezbollah, and thus Iran was, at least, not unreasonable.

Besides, both Iran and Hezbollah have their motives for targeting Israelis at the moment. For Iran, it's the fact that the enmity is mutual. A recent cyberattack on Iran's nuclear programme appears to have started in Israel, and the Iranians believe the Israelis have orchestrated a series of recent murders of Iranian scientists involved in that programme. Iran has publicly declared it is prepared to play a game of tit-for-tat with Israel, should it come to that. Well, it may just have come to that.

Syria a necessary evil

All through history, states have engaged in subterfuge and skulduggery to advance their interests. The Middle East sees more than its share of such spy-game stuff, and it would hardly be surprising if this was an instance of what the military theorist Clausewitz called diplomacy by other means.

For its part, not only does Hezbollah have an ongoing war of its own with Israel, it could plausibly feel the need to draw closer to its ally, Iran - if only because it is in danger of losing what may be its principal backer, Syria. And this is where things start to get really complicated. (This is, after all, the Middle East, were little is seldom what it seems).

The fall of the Syrian government would be bad news for Iran, since it would lose its most important friend in the region, leaving it more isolated. It would weaken Hezbollah within Lebanon, possibly tipping the government's fragile balance against the Islamist grouping. But the disappearance of Syria's Assad regime would also hurt Israel.

While Syria and Israel are, officially, enemies, for as long as there was a strong, stable regime in Damascus, Israel knew what threat it needed to reckon with. An unstable Syria not only becomes a potential playground for jihadist enemies of Israel, but an Islamist government might prove less pragmatic than the current regime.

Recent reports out of Syria suggest that the Assad regime may be entering its death throes. Those reports, however, give little indication of what might follow. And the Assad regime probably has some nasty fight left in it.

The dangerous unknown

Israel grows more anxious by the day, the events of the Arab Spring making its position ever more uncertain. Not only does Israel have to contend with more hostile governments whose willingness to compromise in return for US aid or Israeli trade might diminish, but the inability of emergent governments to stamp their authority on their countries, at least for the moment, is making Israel's borders more vulnerable.

In Egypt's Sinai Peninsula, the collapse of government authority has enabled private Islamist groups to set up the rudiments of a parallel state. Needless to say, in such an environment, guaranteeing the security of Egypt's border with Israel is not a high priority.

Until the Bulgarian bomber is identified with certainty, one cannot discount other possible actors. What is unquestionable is that the incident, and others like it, will continue to inflame tensions in a region that is growing more incendiary with the passage of time. With the Israelis as preoccupied as ever with Iran's nuclear programme, they will remain vigilant in the extreme for signs of Iranian covert activity.

John Rapley is a research associate at the International Growth Centre, London School of Economics and Political Science. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and rapley.john@gmail.com.