Obama ahead by a nose and two big ears

Daniel Thwaites, Contributor

If ever you wanted proof that civilisation is precarious, have a look at what a Category One hurricane can do to New York City and the tri-state region. The current scare is that many houses are without electricity, and it's expected to get cold.

Luckily, it wasn't particularly cold during or just after the storm. There were policemen guarding every gas station that still had petrol, and there were very long lines for the non-experts in 'hurricanology' who had failed to gas up early.

Prior to the hurricane, there was a fair deal of work going on, particularly road paving. An election was due, so the road improvements were in high gear, with crews out from morning to night. It felt like home.

At the federal level, New York is a Democratic Party garrison, but at the local level, there is intense competition for state and federal positions in districts that do swing. So 'dollaz haffi run' and the unions and 'community organisers' have to be tended.

The universal tendency of democratic politics to degrade into feeding constituency organisations can be disheartening if pondered too long or observed from too many angles. Ultimately, Churchill's saying that "democracy is the worst form of government, except for all those other forms that have been tried from time to time", may be as much observation as statement of faith (despite the evidence).

THE THRILL IS GONE

I voted for Obama four years ago, and it felt like a privilege to do it. In fact, I took my children along to experience the historical moment, cast the actual ballot, and play some part in electing him. It felt that good. This time, the thrill has definitely diminished, but that's life, isn't it? The gritty and pragmatic business of governing is not nearly as attractive as the promise of 'hope and change'.

Unfortunately, he's governed predictably, like any other centrist Democrat. This has occasioned some disappointment. I found myself momentarily sober at a concert where Carlos Santana said, "I wanted him to paint the White House black ... or at least make it the colour of the rainbow!" The crowd roared. But Santana groupies are special.

Civil-rights failures

One big decision came with the American FINSAC moment, when Wall Street collapsed. Taxpayers learned (again) that when there's a crisis, the Government is the actual owner of distressed financial institutions. This was the time when Obama could have, and should have, exacted a complete overhaul and serious regulation of the financial system. Instead, they were back to business as usual within very little time.

Another fault lies in Mr Obama's handling of civil liberties. As a former constitutional law professor, one would have hoped for better. Jonathan Turley, writing in the Los Angeles Times, put it this way: "Obama failed to close Guantanamo Bay as promised. He continued warrantless surveillance and military tribunals that denied defendants basic rights. He asserted the right to kill US citizens he views as terrorists. His administration has fought to block dozens of public-interest lawsuits challenging privacy violations and presidential abuses."

All the same, it's easy to forget the economic disaster Obama inherited from Bush. And when compared to the ideologues of the Republican Party, the choice is easy. I marvel that there are supposedly "undecided" voters out there. For me, it's difficult to see how someone can be undecided so much as confused. What could they possibly be waiting on? Is there some magic word that Barack or Mitt could say that would give them an 'aha!' revelation?

Likely Obama victory

As we all learned during the United States electoral debacle between Bush and Gore in 2000, Americans don't vote directly for the president. They vote for members of the Electoral College, who are representatives from states. These Electoral College members then elect the president. It is, therefore, important to win states, not just a majority of the votes. Obama has maintained a lead in the Electoral College all through the campaign. It is, therefore, very likely that he will triumph today.

As I write, torrents of polling information keep appearing, showing that Obama has only a very slight lead nationally, but that he's ahead in most of the swing states that ultimately will decide this contest. Of the 50 states, less than a dozen are really competitive. Ultimately, whoever wins Ohio wins the election, and it has been quite steadily for Obama.

Thank heavens! The idea of looking at, and listening to, Mitt Romney for eight years fills me with awesome dread. Not to mention, and at risk of being flippant, Michelle is far more pleasant to look at than Ann.

Daniel Thwaites is a partner of Thwaites, Lundgren & D'Arcy in Westchester and Bronx counties in New York. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com.