The Syrian inferno

By John Rapley

It would seem that just about everyone is fanning the flames of the Syrian civil war, a conflict that has left over 70,000 people dead amid savage fighting. Each time the wind seems to blow one way, someone whips up the fan to blow them the other. The result is an inferno which will not die.

Just a few months ago, the regime of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad seemed to be on its last legs. His friends in Moscow were getting ready to cut him loose, and the balance of regional power was tipping strongly against his principal regional ally, Iran. What a difference a few months make. With Western allies arming the rebels, Russia decided to supply fresh weaponry to the Baathist government.

Then, more decisively, Lebanon's Hezbollah militia decided to enter the fray. Worried about how the loss of its Syrian ally might affect its position, and no doubt egged on by Tehran, Hezbollah sent some of its fighters to support the Syrian government. Their intervention helped the government to recapture the strategic town of Qusair. This will help secure government supply routes.

A new lease on life

Assad's forces will not be able to beat the rebels outright, certainly not yet. But the recent developments amount to a new lease on life, and put the rebels on the defensive. In addition to the changed external environment, the regime has benefited from its own internal cohesion. In the face of considerable strain and some high-profile defections, the government held together. After some initial manpower losses, morale in the military appears to have improved. Meanwhile, regular forces have been supplemented by newly formed militias, which in defending their own turf have a big investment in the war's outcome.

The rebels, on the other hand, are as disorganised as ever. The effort to create a coordinating leadership has amounted to little, and rebel units tend to fight separately - and sometimes with very different agendas, from secularist to Islamist. Efforts to reach a peace deal are handicapped by the fact that the rebels refuse to consider any outcome which does not lead to the departure of Assad, whereas Assad has shown he has no intention of leaving willingly. Until a compromise can be found on this issue, a bloody stalemate is likely.

West wants Assad gone

Western governments would like to see the back of Assad, if only to weaken their arch-foe Iran. But their arming of the rebels has been tentative and hesitant. They worry that the weapons they send might find their way into Islamist hands. Islamists represent only one of many factions in the Syrian conflict. But they have also proved to be among the most effective fighters.

When US President Barack Obama recently announced that the US would arm the rebels, it was seen by many of his critics as too little, too late. On one hand, Western governments don't want Assad to win. But on the other hand, without supplying such weapons as anti-aircraft weapons, they are unlikely to give the rebels what they need for victory. Such a big step remains a bridge too far for the allies, who shudder at the prospect of a heavily armed, Islamist Syria.

It's not only Western leaders who lie awake at nights at this thought. At the moment, Iran's regional position has been bolstered somewhat by what is sometimes called a Shia arc - headed by Iran, with friendly governments in Iraq and Syria and a pivotal militia in Lebanon's Hezbollah. Its traditional enemies in the Sunni Muslim countries, particularly in the Persian Gulf, would love to beat back Iranian influence. This explains the heavy investment Iran itself has been prepared to make in the Syrian civil war.

Syria has become a proxy battleground for the region's great powers, like Iran and the Gulf monarchies, with the Russians and Americans playing supporting roles. Until one of these players blinks, Syria will likely remain a bloody terrain.

John Rapley, a political economist at the University of Cambridge, is currently on a visiting professorship at Queen's University in Canada. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and jr603@cam.ac.uk