EDITORIAL - Warning from the weather

Having been battered by tropical weather systems over the previous decade, Jamaica would have broadly welcomed the out-turn of the 2013 hurricane season.

We were hit by no hurricane and spared the kind of flooding that has, in recent years, become all too frequent from tropical storms.

Generally, last year's was the least active season in 30 years and the sixth least active since 1950. There were 13 named tropical storms, just about the average for the last three decades. But only two of these, Ingrid in June and Humberto in September, developed into hurricanes. The average is six.

Neither Ingrid nor Humberto became a major hurricane, which means reaching the category three to category five range. Usually, you can count on three to reach that level of rampaging force.

The absence of weather-related natural disasters in 2013 had positive economic consequences for Jamaica. Agriculture's recovery was a significant contributor to the 0.5 per cent growth in the third quarter, reversing five consecutive quarters of negative performance.

Additionally, with its thin budgetary cushion, not having to divert cash to the urgent rehabilitation of infrastructure kept the Government on track to satisfy the International Monetary Fund target of primary surplus of 7.5 per cent of GDP for the 2013/14 fiscal year.

Relatively good luck

But our relatively good luck in 2013 ought not be taken for granted. The next hurricane season, and whatever it produces, is just around the corner.

Moreover, as events in the Eastern Caribbean over the Christmas holidays reminded, other weather-related dangers lurk. A month after the end of the season, a slow-moving trough hovered over the Windward Islands, dumping tons of rain on St Vincent and the Grenadines, St Lucia, and Dominica, causing severe flooding and landslide. More than 20 people were killed.

Unpredictable weather patterns are an increasing feature of recent decades, which scientists say is the result of global warming and climate change. The new predictability in weather, at least for now, is unpredictability.

Our challenge

That does not mean Jamaica is without options and we are merely at the mercy of the weather. Our challenge is to be continually prepared. This places greater burden on the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management.

But the job is not theirs alone. Neither does it only mean the big capital outlays, which, in Jamaica, tend to be the measure by which success is presumed. It is also about doing the small things and getting them right, consistently.

In St Vincent, where at least nine people died in the flood and landslide, most of the disaster was unavoidable. At the same time, their prime minister, Ralph Gonsalves, hinted that in some instances communities and individuals may have exacerbated the problem through arbitrary disposal of solid waste.

That is a problem in Jamaica, too. In our case, it is worsened by the failure of government agencies such as the National Solid Waste Management Authority, parish council and the local government ministry, to do a decent job of cleaning drains and gullies, maintaining culverts or enforcing zoning regulations. We thus help set the basis for disaster.

Getting these and other small things right will help not only to save lives, but the economy.

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