Roger the dodger

By Christopher Serju

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics" is a phrase describing the persuasive power of numbers, particularly the use of statistics, usually to bolster weak arguments, and without which they cannot hold water or withstand any significant scrutiny.

Agriculture Minister Roger Clarke's recent Budget presentation was replete with figures, which, on the surface, would suggest that production and productivity are trending in the right direction. However, an analysis of the numbers touted would, I posit, find them to be outdated and in some cases definitely inaccurate.

I continue to be insulted by the unwillingness or inability of speakers to provide specifics that would provide a context or framework so the audience can get a proper understanding of the message they are attempting to convey.

"Mr Speaker, agriculture's contribution to GDP in 2013 was 6.7 per cent. This nominal contribution, however, does not encompass the significant linkage between agriculture, manufacturing and tourism," he announced triumphantly.

I am still trying, without success, to determine the full value of that "significant linkage". Then, in respect of the agro parks, which he described as a game changer, the minister goes on to highlight the "phenomenal performance of the subsector, which moved production from 444 tonnes in 2011 to 1,082 tonnes in 2012, by increasing the area of production from 162 hectares (405 acres) to 219 hectares (547.5 acres)."

Increasing the volume of production without proportionally upping the level of efficiency can result in the sale of more produce at a significant loss. Nowhere is this more evident than in farming, and as the minister should know, 'cock mouth kill cock', for it was the same platform he used to advise the nation that the exuberance of farmers was the reason 16 acres of onion was planted ahead of the completion of the irrigation structure. In addition, he admitted that the farmers had also rejected the Government's resuscitation plan, in the process refusing the loan offered by the St Thomas People's Cooperative Credit Union.

How then does he sign off on that segment of the speech by declaring, unashamedly, "Mr Speaker, our agro parks .... another promise signed, sealed and delivered!"?

The agriculture minister needs to start checking the facts instead of regurgitating the propaganda so generously and consistently generated by his speech writers.

Impressive statistics

Had he done that, Mr Clarke might have opted to delete the section about the School Feeding Programme, which, if he is to be believed, has resulted in improved nutrition for students and more money in the pockets of farmers. This has been achieved through the provision of 2,151 kilograms of liquid eggs, valued at about J$1.34 million, and which was used to make 476,000 bullas. Some 2,925 kilograms of banana valued at J$163,607 and 1,905 kilograms of carrot were added to the mix.

Impressive statistics, indeed, when viewed on their own, but when one looks at them against the original projections, these 'achievements' pale into significance and burn brightly only as indicators of failure.

For it was at the 35th anniversary dinner of the Small Business Association of Jamaica on Friday, November 20, 2009 that Dr Derrick Deslandes, then director of the Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries' Centre of Excellence made the following announcement: "We are going into a pilot programme to introduce a mix between melon and June plum into the School Feeding Programme starting early next month, and we are going to introduce this into the system by next January."

The director of the Centre of Excellence then went on to explain that the pilot project would start with 130,000 students and be expanded to 600,000, feeding on locally produced juices, eggs, and milk. His optimistic and unrealistic projection that within two months of the launch there would be a demand for 500,000 pounds of melon was well received, especially by farmers, who were already counting their money.

The irony is that as the agriculture minister told a meeting of dairy farmers some years ago, Jamaicans are consuming less than half the daily recommended intake of milk as set out by the World Health Organization. It is sad that this is happening at a time when dairy farmers are catching hell and have very little to show for their years of investment and toil.

Fell short

In his address to the 10th anniversary observation of the Eat Jamaican Campaign, Dr Jerome Thomas, the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) representative for Jamaica, Belize and The Bahamas, said that while the campaign had stimulated increased production and consumption of local agricultural products, it still fell short.

Describing response to the campaign as "mixed", Dr Thomas told The Gleaner that despite self-sufficiency in some areas, devastation of the dairy industry and challenges facing goat and sheep farmers continued to hobble the country's efforts to eradicate hunger and poverty.

"FAO's vision is for a world free from hunger and malnutrition where food and agriculture contribute to improving the living standards of all, especially the poorest, in an economically, socially and environmentally sustainable manner," Dr Thomas told a wide cross section of stakeholders at King's House. It's time for Minister Clarke to embrace the FAO vision, and then maybe Jamaicans in general, and farmers in particular, might catch a break.

For as livestock geneticist Dr Karl Wellington, writing in 1972, noted in his analysis of the ailing dairy sector - a situation which unfortunately still paints with unerring accuracy a true picture of the dairy sector and wider agriculture industry - until proper infrastructure and technical support are put in place, Jamaica will be like a beggar sitting on a pot of gold.

Christopher Serju is an agriculture and rural affairs reporter. Email feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and christopher.serju@gleanerjm.com.