Orville Taylor | Egging on the politics

Counting chickens has a centuries old warning connected to it. However, even counting eggs could very well be a risky undertaking. With the Lenten season just beginning, and the expectation that other kinds of eggs will demonstrate certain kinds of outcomes, a caution to both major political parties is that there yet, is no victory to celebrate.

Eggs are very delicate. If held too tightly across the middle they crumble. Handled too loosely; they fall. However, if we attempt to squeeze from top to bottom, especially, if using our index finger and thumb; we may be able to shake them, but breaking them will be a very difficult endeavour.

Appearances can be very deceptive. A white spotless egg can easily have a large orange yolk; while a brown one with a subtle orange tint, often has a tiny yolk, which is pale yellow.

And that is not even half of the story. Unless they are in an advanced state of incubation or internal decay, you simply cannot tell their freshness by looking or even smelling.

With just a bit of patience and the willingness to hold eggs up to a relatively powerful light, they become translucent and any embryo, or pathology can be detected. Remember, it must be a good light; not necessarily a ‘favourable’ one.

In fact, one can even be misled by cooked eggs. With the wrong timing or vessel, the expected bright orange interior can end up a solid army-green hue.

Politics are not much different from these culinary items, as the recent RJRGLEANER Don Anderson polls have reported.

Coming out of last September’s local government elections, the results certainly matched the Anderson poll numbers, with the Opposition, People’s National Party (PNP) gaining a small but significant lead, and in real terms, what would translate into a victory in the bigger contest.

On the heels of its national conference in September, with the show somewhat stolen by the recently released Vybz Kartel, the PNP had a nine per cent lead over the ruling Jamaica Labour Party (JLP).

SOME CONCERNS

Funny, there were some concerns that the controversial figure might have alienated some voters. After all, as I did remark in an earlier column and on air, it was indeed a gamble that the party took in bringing him on stage. Now six months later, after the entertainer had disavowed himself of any partisan loyalty, the lead is now down to four per cent. This is just a shade outside of the margin of error. Importantly, the poll measured the popular vote, and not the actual distribution of seats. Given the history of a party winning the popular vote, and still losing the general election based on seats, there is absolutely no basis for the PNP to feel comfortable, or the JLP to think that winning the election is a sealable deal.

Voter apathy is still a large part of the electoral landscape, with 33 per cent of voters not indicating a party preference.

Still, there are indeed some issues, which are very important to the electorate, inasmuch as there are others which some of us in media think are of paramount significance.

Despite the fact that the majority of Jamaicans are not directly terrorised by the homicide or violence rate, an overwhelming percentage of the population considered it to be the single most important concern. Harp we may about corruption. However, if the PNP thinks the corruption perception surrounding this government, despite its frequent run-ins with the Integrity Commission, is such a big issue, it should not bank an electoral victory on it. Only eight per cent of prospective voters consider corruption to be the most important factor.

This finding is consistent with the 57 per cent who have no opinion on the Commission.

Corruption perception might land an election if there is a statistical dead heat. More important, as I stated last week, the corruption perception index (CPI) actually improved under the JLP, which has numbers three percentage points higher than the PNP in its last four years in office.

DOES NOT MATCH

For the record, as constantly reminded the readers and listeners, the CPI does not match the actual experiences with corruption. Polls, and survey carried out by at least three universities in Jamaica and the US, using USAID funds, have found that on the average, only about 10 per cent of Jamaicans ever personally has been a victim of corruption, such as being forced to pay a bribe.

About half of the population (47 per cent) now believe that the country is going in the wrong direction. However, the more telling statistic should be whether or not the potential voters believe that that incumbent Andrew Holness-led JLP is better suited to put the country in the right direction or can Mark Golding and the PNP carry on this task. Very close, 40/39 per cent each have negative ratings, with the exception of the 38 per cent of who believe the PNP will do better for the poor, compared to 30 for the JLP.

Something has happened over the past few months that either put some extra octane in the tank of the JLP or the PNP has lifted its foot from the ‘exhilarator’.

Just six months ago, 58 per cent of the population saluted the JLP with only one of its customary fingers, saying, “Wrong direction!”

However one wants to read it; nine per cent more either no longer feel that the country is on a wrong trajectory, or believe that it is moving in the right direction.

Some 41 per cent believe that their situation has got better under this administration. Although 26 per cent said it got worse, the fact that an even 33 per cent felt that their status remained the same is certainly not a failing grade.

At 32 and 35 per cent, there is no indication who will win. On Good Friday, put egg white in water and wait.

Dr Orville Taylor is senior lecturer at the Department of Sociology at The University of the West Indies, a radio talk-show host, and author of ‘Broken Promises, Hearts and Pockets’. Send feedback to columns@gleanerjm.com and tayloronblackline@hotmail.com.