Editorial | Jamaica grows grey

The seeming rise in complaints of abuse of elderly people highlights not only that problem, but also the urgency with which the island must formulate policies to deal with demographic shifts that make grey Jamaicans the fastest-growing segment of the island’s population.

At present, elderly Jamaicans, people 65 and over, account for around 7.9 per cent of the island’s population, more than double the ratio at the time of independence in 1962.

Twenty-five years from now, in 2050, as the Statistical Institute of Jamaica (STATIN) recently told a Senate committee looking into care for the elderly, grey Jamaicans will account for 18.5 per cent of the population.

Put another way, there will be more old people than there will be children (people under 15) in the island. That is turning things on their heads, compared to 65 years ago, in 1960, when over 41 per cent of the population was under 15. That figure has since been halved to 20.9 per cent.

In a quarter century’s time, children will make up 16.9 per cent of the population, STATIN’s demographers predict. So, there will be 1.6 percentage points fewer young children than elderly Jamaicans.

This demographic shift, the result of Jamaicans having fewer children while living longer, raises profound policy issues for the island, ranging from the provision of social and financial care to the elderly, to how to grow the economy and create the surpluses to fund the required schemes.

Happily, some of these conversations have begun, including via the hearings into Senator Floyd Morris’ private member’s motion calling for specific legislation on care and protection for the elderly.

NOT ROBUST

These discussions, however, are not sufficiently wide or robust. Perhaps a parallel review of the emerging population structure, and its implications for the economy, should simultaneously be undertaken by the House committee on production and the economy.

In the meantime, there are policy initiatives which might be undertaken and/or expanded to cushion the impact of some of the issues that are increasingly being exposed because of the island’s ageing population. Not least of these is the question of the mental wellbeing of the elderly, a matter often raised by Dr Denise Eldemire-Shearer, a professor of public health and ageing at The University of the West Indies (UWI), Mona.

In the absence of family or close friends, old people often suffer from loneliness, struggle to complete basic chores or run errands. Indeed, The Gleaner on Wednesday recalled a 2023 survey by the Caribbean Community of Retired Persons (CCRP) in which 59 per cent of the organisation’s members reported neglect of elderly acquaintances. Fifty-seven per cent reported witnessing emotional abuse. These situations will only worsen, unless something happens to shift the trajectory.

During the COVID-19 pandemic the health ministry unveiled a project in which young people were supposed to provide some of these services to the elderly. It is not clear how effective that initiative was, or whether it has been sustained. However, it was a good idea, which, if it was not continued, should be relaunched, expanded, and kept in place.

The CCRP’s suggestion for a Commission for the Elderly, to pursue the rights of older people, appears to be a good one. It ought to be pursued by the Senate review committee.

FINANCIAL WELLBEING

Probably the most serious issue faced by elderly Jamaicans, though, is their financial wellbeing. Many are without any form of pension and subsist on handouts.

Indeed, only about 11 per cent of the labour force is covered by private pension funds/superannuation schemes. Additionally, while all working Jamaicans between 18 and 70 are supposed to contribute to the National Insurance Scheme (NIS), less than 45 per cent of the employed labour force pays into its fund – a six per cent salary deduction, shared equally between employers and employees on salaries up to J$5 million per year.

Mandated increase in contributions in recent years, plus the hike from J$3 million to J$5 million on the salary cap, extended by 15 years, to 2050, the time by which the scheme could go broke. That is the same time when the population is projected to be at its greyest – and becoming even greyer.

Obviously, the adjustment to the NIS in recent years wasn’t sufficient to address the looming challenges. The government, therefore, has to be robust in extracting as much as possible from the existing demographic dividend, of having the bulk of the population still being part of the working age cohort.

As this newspaper previously proposed, a new, broad-based industrial policy, to lift the economy from low-wage, low-technology. Low-technology trap is of absolute urgency. Building a national consensus around this, as was done with respect to the reform project that achieved debt-reduction and macroeconomic stability in a sine qua non of the endeavour.

At the same time the Government must aggressively embark on an effort to sign more workers as NIS contributors, including people who are self-employed or are in informal employment. They have, if necessary, to be met (in markets, bars, at bus stops, on farms, etc) where they work, and sold the value of their participation in the NIS.

The society must talk frankly, too, about initiatives that might reverse the population decline, or if not, what else might be necessary to ensure an efficient and productive labour environment – in concert with the industrial policy.