Tricky 'Tomas'
Published:Wednesday | November 3, 2010 | 12:00 AM
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
Forecasters struggled to project the path of Tropical Storm Tomas yesterday as the weather system slowly meandered across the region, heading towards Jamaica and Haiti, which have both been placed on hurricane watch.
However, the forecasters all agree that Tomas should reach hurricane strength today and that it should bring strong winds and heavy rains to the two nations.
Most forecasters expect Tomas to start affecting weather conditions over Jamaica late tonight or early tomorrow.
But there is no agreement yet on how close Tomas will get to the island, and the strength of the winds it will be packing when it moves into the vicinity of Morant Point, in the east.
Kingston and St Andrew, St Thomas, Portland, St Mary and St Catherine are expected to be the first parishes to feel the effects of the system.
Late yesterday, the Meteorological Service issued the hurricane watch for the island indicating that Jamaica could start seeing hurricane conditions within 48 hours.
The Met Service said that at 4 p.m. yesterday, the centre of Tropical Storm Tomas was about 520km (320 miles) south-southeast of Morant Point.
At that time, Tomas was continuing its move towards the west at near 22 kilometres, or 14 miles, per hour (mph).
Maximum sustained winds were near 65km/h (40 mph), with higher gusts.
In its update, the United States National Hurricane Center reported that Tomas was moving a little slower than before and was expected to turn northward and northeastward in the next 48 hours.
Disagreement on position
According to the National Hurricane Center, there was a large disagreement about the position of Tomas in the next four to five days.
Hurricane expert Dr Jeff Masters, writing in his blog on Weather Underground, also indicated the different forecast models surrounding Tomas.
"The uncertainties in the track forecast are greater than usual," Masters said.
"By Wednesday, (a) trough to Tomas' north should be able to pull the storm to the northwest. Tomas' outer spiral bands will bring heavy rains to southwestern Haiti and eastern Jamaica beginning on Thursday night," Masters wrote.
He added: "The computer models have come into better agreement that Tomas will turn more to the north-northeast by Friday, with Haiti or Jamaica the most likely landfall locations."
He noted that, up to yesterday, forecasters were giving Kingston a 45 per cent chance of tropical storm winds and a seven per cent chance of hurricane winds.
"The models are increasingly suggesting that once Tomas begins moving to the north-northeast, the trough pulling the storm in that direction will lift out, stranding Tomas in a region of weak steering currents.
"Tomas may then wander and dump heavy rains for several days, Saturday through Monday," Masters said.
He argued that there was a substantial danger that Tomas would undergo a period of rapid intensification once it rebuilds its inner core and establishes an eyewall.
"This may give Tomas sufficient time to intensify into a major hurricane before landfall in Haiti or Jamaica," warned Masters.
"The most reasonable intensity forecast at this point is to call for a landfall on Friday at Category 2 strength, but Tomas could easily be anywhere from Category 1 to Category 3 hurricane strength on Friday," said Masters.
Getting ready for Tomas
Education ministry watching development before making any decisions on schools.
ODPEM and other agencies to provide update at media briefing this morning.
Fishers on the cays and banks advised to evacuate. Small craft operators to return to port.
NWC encouraging its customers to store water.