Tomas is no Nicole
Published:Thursday | November 4, 2010 | 12:00 AM
Arthur Hall, Senior Staff Reporter
International weather forecasters shifted their attention somewhat from Jamaica yesterday as the threat of Tropical Storm Tomas decreased slightly.
A tropical storm watch was issued for the island yesterday, representing a downgrade from the hurricane watch which had been issued on Tuesday.
However, the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management (ODPEM) is anticipating that the system will make its way back up to hurricane status.
"We have to be prepared for any eventuality," ODPEM Director General Ronald Jackson told journalists yesterday at a press conference held at his agency's Kingston offices.
At the same time, the international forecasters were quick to warn that the dark clouds over Jamaica had not totally lifted and warned that heavy rains associated with Tomas, which regained tropical-storm strength as it travelled over the central Caribbean Sea yesterday, should start drenching the island by this afternoon.
"Heavy rains from Tomas will begin affecting Jamaica and south-western Haiti starting on Thursday afternoon, and will spread to eastern Cuba, the Dominican Republic, and the rest of Haiti by Friday morning," said respected forecaster Dr Jeff Masters on his blog on Weather Underground yesterday.
"Tomas will probably not be as bad for Jamaica as Tropical Storm Nicole in September, which killed 14 and did US$245 million in damage. Nicole's rains lasted three days in Jamaica, and Tomas' rains should last at most one and a half days on the island," Masters added.
The United States-based National Hurricane Center gave Jamaica a 45 per cent chance of receiving tropical storm-force winds, and a four per cent chance of hurricane-force winds.
In its release at 5 p.m., the local Meteorological Service reported that Tomas was about 370 kilometres (230 miles) south-southeast of Morant Point in the east.
Tomas was moving slowly towards the north-northwest near nine kilometres or six miles per hour.
The Met Service said a turn towards the north and then north-northeast was expected over the next 48 hours with the centre of Tomas approaching Haiti on Friday.
Maximum sustained winds had increased to near 75km/h (45mph) with higher gusts, and the Met Service warned that additional strengthening was forecast during the next 48 hours, with Tomas possibly approaching hurricane strength as it nears Haiti.
While some rainfall associated with Tomas might have been recorded in the eastern section of the island late yesterday, the real problems will come today and tomorrow.
"Showers and possible thunderstorms are expected to increase on Thursday and Friday as the tropical storm moves past the island.
"Gusty winds reaching near tropical storm force are likely to be experienced over sections of eastern parishes late Thursday and early Friday," said the Met Service.