Shall early elections help fix the economy?

By Wilberne Persaud

Prime Minister Andrew Holness has landed a tough job.

His Jamaica Labour Party colleagues anointed him primus inter pares - first among equals - with a mandate, unspoken yet obvious to all, to accomplish victory at the polls. All the evidence normally available at these times - potential points of inflection in another discipline - suggest early elections shall be upon us in a matter of weeks. This is predictable, a result we expect in the variant of the British Westminster model we modified here in the Caribbean.

Election machinery of both parties shall ramp up to top gear. The decision may simply rest upon whom the electorate believes has the heavyweight punch - Muhammad Ali's bee sting - to deliver the goodies.

Mind you, the 'butterfly float' complete with rice and peas, curry goat, reggae, dance hall and mento, still have their uses.

All this, in turn, may depend on financial contributions to the parties and the apparatus for influencing opinion formation the two sides can muster in the time available.

The fact, however, is that the Jamaican economy in its current state, cannot deliver goodies to the electorate, certainly not in a way that is sustainable.

Herein lies the problem. This is a moment of continuing global financial turmoil made worse by local financial and fiscal constraints of enormous proportions. The worst thing that can happen is to shift focus entirely from seeking solution to this predicament while concentrating exclusively on electioneering.

To do this means foregoing attention to the economy's present and chronic ailment of continuing deficits and borrowing after the debt exchange provided critical breathing space. In such a case, just as we misread the sting in the delayed impact of the 2008 Wall Street meltdown, we shall have created a new government that must face an existing, chronic problem without an agreed consensus among competing interest groups on how to proceed.

Note carefully, this shall be the same ailing economy regardless of whether JLP or PNP takes the winner's slot after Andrew 'fly the gate'! This, I fear, is exactly what we shall have. Some analysts call this 'Winner Take All' politics, or 'Politics of Spoils and Scarce Benefits'.

Regardless of how we choose to describe this system, it is difficult, if not impossible for it to generate long-run economic growth or sustainable development with broad equity for the general population.

Currently available evidence suggests our health-care system for the mass of our people is in bad shape, in part because of flawed policy; education is not on the path it should be for the motion of 21st century technological innovation; tourism and remittances are down; while a visit to the supermarket routinely results in price label shock.

The very first day our new Government takes office, symptoms of economic malaise shall not have abated.

Much as I wish we could have a clear set of policies, targets and time lines to deal with our IMF agreement, one to be determined through resolution of differences and an agreed consensus, both between us and the IMF and amongst our competing interest groups, this appears to be too much to hope for. Problems of tax reform, ministerial waivers, lack of transparency in critical decisions about asset disposal, public-sector employment policy and much more will remain unresolved.

I hope I am wrong, that there are experts and 'think tanks' humming in the background as election merriment proceeds, that negotiations are ongoing with stakeholders whose support for deficit-reduction policies are essential, and that our Government shall be able to hit the ground running once ballots are counted and declared.

wilbe65@yahoo.com