Editorial | Prepare for earthquakes

Jamaica dodged a bullet two years ago. In February 2020, an earthquake measuring 7.7 on the modified Richter Scale occurred in the sea 125 kilometres, or approximately 78 miles, northeast of the coastal town of Lucea, Hanover.

Shocks were felt in the Cayman Islands, parts of Cuba, and elsewhere in the northern Caribbean. There were tsunami alerts.

In Kingston, Jamaica’s capital on the south coast, the intensity of the quake, hundreds of kilometres from its epicentre, was measured at four on the modified Mercalli scale. Buildings vibrated. Many were evacuated, bringing an early start to the evening rush hour, causing gridlock in the city. In the city of Montego Bay, on the north coast, approximately 140 kilometres from the quake’s epicentre, the Mercalli reading was around five, meaning that the vibrations would have been even more intense than in Kingston.

If that earthquake had taken place on land, experts said at the time, its intensity would probably have been 10 or 11 (12 is the maximum) on the Mercalli scale. Damage and devastation would likely have been substantial. People might have died.

Indeed, at 7.8 on the Richter scale, the earthquake in Turkey and Syria a fortnight ago that crumpled thousands of buildings and so far caused more than 42,000 deaths, was only marginally more powerful than the one off Lucea.

Hopefully, an earthquake of that magnitude on land in Jamaica would not cause the same level of destruction, or of that in Haiti a dozen years ago, measuring seven on the Richter scale, that killed over 220,000 people.

MITIGATE

There are two primary ways to mitigate the probability of a calamity of such a scale from an earthquake in Jamaica. One is to ensure that the island has an effective disaster management and relief system that works well in a catastrophe.

In that regard, it is hoped that the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Emergency Management has good earthquake protocols and performs simulations in preparation for disasters. It is not our sense that despite the real dangers posed by earthquakes, Jamaicans are not as drilled in how to respond to them as other catastrophes. That should change.

But the most important countermeasure against destruction of the scale in Turkey this year, Haiti in 2010, or in Kingston in 1907 (when more than a 1,000 people died) is a robust construction and regulatory regime that is not prone to corruption. The starting point, therefore, is safe buildings that do not become death traps for their residents.

Since the earthquake, hundreds of public officials, building contractors, and real estate developers have been arrested in Turkey. They are being investigated for allegedly skirting building regulations, which structural engineers believe contributed to the collapse of thousands of buildings.

Over the last two decades, Turkey enjoyed a construction boom, partly in response to the demand for homes after the destruction caused by previous earthquakes. Cityscapes changed across the country as high-rise buildings went up.

BYPASS RULES

Modern building codes were supposed to be in effect precisely to prevent destruction of the scale that occurred two weeks ago. The claim now is that in many cases, corrupt officials allowed developers to bypass the rules.

Jamaica passed a new building law in 2018 that theoretically, enhanced its regulatory regime. The building code has also been strengthened.

However, there is an inventory of older buildings that do not meet modern construction/engineering standards. This is exacerbated by wide-scale informality in the construction sector that often allows homes and commercial structures to skirt engineering or regulatory oversight. In many cases, too, informally manufactured construction materials, especially concrete blocks, are well below established standards. These pose safety risks.

There is, for this newspaper, an even greater cause for concern. In recent years, citizens have in several instances, in court proceedings proved regulatory agencies inept, or at least tardy, in following their own rules in real estate developments or being indifferent to citizens’ concerns.

This wave of citizen activism comes as changes in density limits have allowed an explosion of mid- and high-rise residences and commercial buildings, some of which are close to or appear to overhang single-family homes.

In the aftermath of Turkey, this newspaper has sympathy for the call by Patricia Green, architect and advocate for sustainable construction, that the Government requisition a compliance audit of new high-rises. If done, it should be conducted by independent professionals.

We also agree with the proposal by seismologist Professor Simon Mitchell for a review of the building code to ensure that it is relevant to Jamaica’s new construction environment. It is significant, too, that Professor Mitchell agrees with Dr Green’s call for a review and stress-testing of the island’s high-rises and rectification of those that do not meet modern earthquake specifications.

“We can’t predict [when an earthquake will happen], but we must be ready from now,” Professor Mitchell said.

Indeed, Jamaica sits on an earthquake fault line. At some point, it will experience another big quake.